FICC | Bonds
Actionable asset allocation recommendations for your bond portfolio, drawing on macro analysis of interest rates and global debt market dynamics. Typically published weekly.
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Could a second wave of global inflation be underway? The latest inflation prints in the US and UK showed upside surprises, while there is evidence of increased price pressures in global manufacturing. Combined with the improvements seen in economic sentiment measures and leading economic indicators in the US and Europe, and potential upside risks to oil prices, we see a strong case for owning more inflation protection in global bond portfolios. Inflation-linked bonds look attractive in this environment, especially in the US.
Our thoughts on bond positioning following this morning’s employment data.
In this Insight, we share our thoughts on yesterday’s FOMC meeting and the Fed’s likely next moves, with implications for US bond strategy.
We present the performance review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio for 2023. We also discuss the outlook for 2024 performance based on our Key Views for the year. The portfolio is positioned to benefit from a year where the global backdrop will be one of weak growth and further declines in inflation, leading central bank to begin cutting interest rates.
Low inflation argues for the Fed to move relatively quickly toward rate cuts. Continued above-trend GDP growth poses a risk to this view, but leading indicators point to slower growth in the coming quarters.
In this Strategy Insight, we assess the monetary policy path for Australia and Canada in 2024 and we discuss how to profit from a growing divergence between the two economies.
An update to our outlooks for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies following this week’s remarks from Fed Governor Waller.
We update our inflation forecast following this morning’s CPI report.