FICC | Bonds

The ECB will cut rates once more this year; however, markets underprice how far it will ease next year.

Some thoughts on this morning’s US claims report and a preview of next week’s FOMC meeting.

Our reaction to this morning’s CPI report and what it means for Fed policy.

This report looks at the latest developments in G10 economies and implications for bond and FX market strategy.

This morning's employment report, particularly the downward revisions to prior months, strengthens our conviction that the US economy is headed for recession.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2024.

Special Report

Turn negative on European credit. At current levels, spreads do not compensate for the risk of a recession materializing later this year or in early 2025.

Special Report

In this Special Report, we assess the impact of monetary policy tightening on major economies. Interest rate sensitive GDP already slowed significantly in response to the aggressive rate hiking cycle. Despite the beginning of policy easing, our forward-looking indicators suggest monetary policy will continue to weigh on the economy.

Special Report

The US fiscal outlook is more unappetizing than it was before the pandemic, but we are not convinced that a difficult day of reckoning awaits. A Treasury market crisis is conceivable, but it is far from inevitable.

What do the mixed signals sent by the UK economy mean for the Bank of England, and what are the implications for Gilts and the British pound?