Noah Holds Barred: The US Expansion Continues – But At What Price?

Hosted By: Noah Weisberger, Chief US Equity Strategist

Moderated By: Jason Glazer, Senior VP, Sales

The US economy is back in Expansion, with growth positive and improving, and US equities continue to climb on the back of a firming cycle and AI-related drivers. Fundamentals still look firm: earnings expectations are rising, margins are expanding, and corporate commentary points to durable demand. But sticky inflation, higher rates, tighter financial conditions, and a coming wave of monster IPOs raise the bar for valuations.

Key topics discussed:

• Expansion extends: what the cyclical indicators are signaling now
• Capex, cash flow, AI: the boom/bubble debate, and why free cash flow matters
• Beyond tech: where AI demand and infrastructure needs are showing up next
• Earnings and margins: how much support is still coming from fundamentals
• Rates and valuations: why this may be the real constraint
• IPO supply: what 40 years of data suggests about forward returns
• Tactically, oil price relief is a reason for cyclical exposures and laggards to get a look: Long Materials, Long Consumer Cyclicals