Political & Geopolitical Cycles

Left-wing populism will likely prevail within the Democratic Party and inspire large tax hikes in 2029. But the US does not face a socialist takeover.

Stay overweight gilts despite renewed political turmoil in the UK.

Midterms matter but geopolitics are the main risk this year. Markets will eventually refocus on geopolitical and inflation risks, raising Fed rate hike odds and supporting US dollar and stocks over gl…

For the first time since… 2022… the GeoMacro team is starting to contemplate the end of the cycle in a serious way.

The odds of a near-term US-Iran deal have gone up slightly, but the odds of a Russian provocation that divides NATO have also gone up. 

The US-China trade truce is getting bigger and better, but a grand strategic bargain on Iran and Taiwan is not happening.