Central Banks & Monetary Policy
Spot gaps between central bank policy, inflation dynamics, and what markets have already priced.
US Labor Market Chartpack: Tight Labor Market A Risk For Bonds In 2027
Next week’s CPI and PPI reports will be much more important determinants of the near-term Fed policy path than this morning’s employment report. However, if the trend of labor market tightening contin…
Warsh Compromises On Forward Guidance
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2026.
Why The Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure Is Not The One To Watch
The PCE/CPI gap is an increasingly important factor driving the near-term outlook for Fed policy. We discuss the drivers of that gap and conclude that it’s likely to narrow in the coming months.
What Can The Treasury Achieve With Bond Buybacks?
The US Treasury department’s attempts at yield suppression are doomed to fail unless the Federal Reserve gets involved.
Are We Losing Control Of The Long End?
Despite recent increases, long-maturity Treasury yields are roughly consistent with fundamental fair value. We see limited value in long duration plays.
US Inflation Chartpack: Soft CPI Keeps Fed On Hold
July’s CPI reading was low enough to keep the Fed on hold for now, but near-term upside inflation risks remain.
