Insights

Japanese financial assets will finally have unfettered access to outsized returns. This performance will come in fits and starts, but we are comfortable laying our cards down on buying the yen, and Japanese industrial stocks. ...

On purely macroeconomic terms, the US economy appears to be heading towards a recession. But the whole point of our framework – GeoMacro – is to forecast the interplay between politics, geopolitics, and macro. The White House is taking control of the Fed in 2026 and, together, they will look to re-l...

There is an old joke about the drunk who searches for his keys under the light post. When asked why he is looking for his keys there, he replies that “this is where the light is.” ...

The real reason behind the overt support by the US of Argentina’s experiment is far less exotic and yet also far more lucrative for global investors. ...

The outperformance of the S&P 500 relative to the S&P 500 EW index is likely to continue over the next year, supported by stronger earnings growth. However, extreme levels of market concentration will ultimately halt the outperformance of the mega-caps....

Mexican equity and fixed-income markets will continue outperforming their EM counterparts, regardless of whether global risk assets sell off or not. Also, we recommend a new trade: long Mexican stocks / short the S&P 500....

Europe is not left out of the AI race. Despite lagging US and China in LLMs and AI capex, Europe is quietly making progress where it matters, including industrial adoption. European capitals and the EU seem committed to not let that technology slip away, and are investing to support a “second-wave” ...

September job gains topped modest expectations, but year-over-year payrolls growth appears to have fallen below stall speed. We remain concerned about US activity....

The K-shaped economy will likely reverse in 2026, with the cyclical parts of the economy doing better. Upgrade Financials and Materials from neutral to overweight. Downgrade Communication Services and Utilities from overweight to neutral. Favor value stocks. Upgrade Bitcoin from neutral to overweigh...

Our conclusions from 2019 were on point. We correctly predicted the fiscal and monetary deluge in 2020 and the subsequent rise in fiscal deficits. Now that we are where we are, someone is going to have to pay for it all. Especially as America's income inequality outcomes are just as bad as ever.&nbs...