Insights

The US High Quality portfolio underperformed its benchmark through December, returning 0.14%, while its SPY benchmark returned 0.78%. On a trailing three-month basis, the USHQ portfolio’s performance was weaker than the benchmark, with USHQ underperforming by approx. 545bps. ...

2026 has closer parallels with 2021 than with 2000 because an ultra-accommodative Fed can prolong the stock market rally even as a tech capex boom ends. Plus, a new tactical trade is short silver versus gold....

We explain the underlying catalysts for the RMB’s seasonal appreciation, and assess the upside potential for the currency in 2026....

There will be little market and macro implications from the US intervention in Venezuela. Fade away any near-term moves in global oil markets. However, Colombian and Peruvian assets will benefit from lower political risk premiums. We are upgrading Colombian equities and fixed income to overweig...

From steepening to flattening. As the BoJ continues to tighten in 2026, we show why curve flatteners are finally the right trade....

We have been surprised that consumption has held up well despite anemic payrolls growth. This brief considers ways that consumption might continue to beat our base-case expectations....

The US removal of Venezuela's Maduro does not presage an invasion of Greenland. But it does justify a lingering risk of conflict with Iran....

Our outlook for Fed policy in 2026....

In trying to dispel client concerns that the US would get involved in another “forever war” akin to Iraq, we posited in a recent missive that President Trump’s designs on Venezuela were similar to the 1983 invasion of Grenada. A way to flex American muscle while, at the same time, reducing US global...