Insights

The AI trade has broadened beyond Public Markets, pulling Private Credit deeper into the ecosystem. Investors are right to understand their overlapping exposures between Public Equities, Venture Capital, Data Centers, and now Private Credit. However, risks from rising Venture Capital Debt and Asset-...

Japan's new government will continue, but politics and foreign policy have become more competitive. ...

Mortgage spread tightening has run its course. Any further drop in mortgage rates will necessitate lower Treasury yields....

Go long KRW versus USD. Within an EM equity portfolio, overweight Korean tech and stay neutral on Korean non-tech. However, we are not bullish on the Korean bourse's absolute performance....

Over the past few months, we have been deploying new market-timing tools aimed at improving the accuracy of our calls. Today’s report highlights our ultra high-frequency Daily Oscillators, which provide daily signals on the near-term direction of the S&P 500 and long-term Treasuries....

With the US unemployment rate and interest rate close to the ‘neutral’ u-star and r-star respectively, further Fed rate cuts risk pushing up inflation and long-term inflation expectations. This is bad for bonds but good for stocks. Plus, two new trades are: short TOPIX versus DAX; and short CAT vers...

Spain's equity and bond outperformance reflects genuine fundamental repair: Lower bad loans, stronger profitability, and sustained earnings upgrades. Valuations remain undemanding despite the rally. Productivity is the key structural risk, but near-term fundamentals continue to surprise to the upsid...

After 250 years, the USA is still the biggest thing happening in the world. But it faces huge challenges in the coming decades from socioeconomic imbalances and strategic competition....

This morning’s CPI report signals that the worst of the tariff impact on inflation may already be in the rearview mirror....

The year 2026 has started off well, with not even the threat to central bank independence denting the market's enthusiasm. Perhaps our tactical caution is misplaced....