Insights

The Fed will keep rates on hold in H1 2026, but dovish policy surprises are likely in the second half of the year....

Our first release of the China High-Frequency Indicators for 2026 suggests that economic growth will continue to decelerate in Q1, leading us to adopt a tactically cautious stance on Chinese equities....

Recession risks in the UK are clearly rising. In this Special Report, we unpack why labor market deterioration, falling wage growth, and normalizing inflation support deeper BoE cuts ahead. We then discuss how to position across gilts, the pound, and UK equities....

Checks and balances in the US political system are underrated. Social unrest and government shutdown will have fleeting market implications.  ...

The conventional wisdom attributes the fall in the yen and the rise in long-term JGB yields to growing fiscal concerns. This narrative, however, fails to explain why the Japanese stock market has risen by 29% in dollar terms since the start of 2025, outperforming the All Country World Index by 6%....

The dollar’s grip on global finance remains formidable, but the foundations are slowly shifting. Our new Dollar Dominance Indicator cuts through the noise, showing why USD usage stays sticky even as reserve demand erodes, and what this long transition means for FX and alternative reserve assets....

Recent economic data have been reasonably firm. We will cut our 12-month US recession probability to 40% from 50% if the Supreme Court strikes down President Trump’s tariffs. This would take our scenario-weighted year-end 2026 price target for the S&P 500 to 6375 from 6200....

US Treasury yields require a higher premium for both geopolitical risk and inflation risk, but higher bond yields are not necessarily bad for stocks....

Our top five "Black Swan" risks this year are familiar but all too realistic in the current climate. Investors should stay overweight US equities and EM-ex-China until some hurdles are cleared....

The 10-year Treasury term premium is now competitive with Baa- and Ba-rated credit spreads. Even without term premium compression, duration carry trades could outperform credit carry trades in a low rate vol environment....