Insights

The recent oil price shock reinforces our view that inflation will surprise to the upside during the next few months but fall rapidly in H2 2026....

China's slowdown coincides with at least a minor global oil shock – a combination we have long feared....

In this monthly iteration of our chartpack, we focus exclusively on just two questions. First, we present four scenarios for how the situation in the Middle East develops. Second, what happens if the pernicious scenarios come to dominate, how investors should play a global recession, were it to occu...

Close oil trades tactically, but beware lingering economic costs of the Iran war this year....

If the 2022 roadmap is any guide, equity markets and cyclical currencies will trough only after confirming that the peak in energy prices is in the rearview mirror. In the very near term, investors should focus on P&L preservation. Reduce exposure to equities, and seek refuge in gold, and inflat...

Growth, inflation, and rate risk drive sector returns and fundamentals, but macro’s explanatory power is at multi-decade lows. Long/short industry-group baskets show the equity market has turned pessimistic about growth, a potential opportunity as the macro data firm. The market’s inflation view has...

Stablecoins are evolving from a niche crypto instrument into a macro-relevant financial layer. This Special Report maps the transmission channels and consequences for the Treasury market, bank funding dynamics, and the dollar’s global footprint....

Investors have decided that the news flow out of the Middle East over the weekend was beyond negative, it is borderline apocalyptic. There are several reasons to agree with this assessment....

The basic idea behind the kinked Phillips curve framework is that there is a non-linear relationship between inflation and unemployment. When long-term inflation expectations are well anchored and the economy is operating along the steep portion of the aggregate labor supply curve, falling labor dem...

The US High Quality portfolio continues to outperform its benchmark through February, returning -1.29%, while its SPY benchmark returned -1.33%. On a trailing three-month basis, the USHQ portfolio’s performance was stronger than the benchmark as well, with USHQ outperforming by approx. 63bps. ...