Insights

The current macro environment is a toxic brew of many of the same vulnerabilities that haunted the global economy in the lead-up to past recessions: Rising oil prices, an unsustainable tech capex boom, elevated equity valuations, excessively high homes prices, and brewing stresses in private credit ...

Indonesian rupiah will continue to plunge, and its local-currency bond yields will rise materially. Investors should short domestic bonds, currency unhedged....

In Section II, Jonathan examines the humanoid robot segment of the emerging physical AI landscape, concluding that humanoid robots are a potential but not yet imminent investment theme....

In Section I, Doug argues that investors should maintain mildly defensive positioning while awaiting the restoration of normalized shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In Section II, Jonathan examines the humanoid robot segment of the emerging physical AI landscape, concluding that humanoid ...

The Iran war may not deescalate in the near term, and if it does, it will likely reescalate later this year, suggesting investors should take a cyclically defensive outlook....

Investment risk in Private Markets differs from that in Public Markets. It unfolds over time, with today’s issues coming from yesterday’s investments. We explain why, and more importantly, why the next dollar now faces lower risk across both macro and fundamental drivers. Just do not expect a discus...

In today’s Strategy Insight, we show why both a quick resolution and a prolonged crisis ultimately point to lower yields....

Chinese stock prices are converging with economic growth after a 2025 rally. While the country can endure a short-term oil price shock, it remains susceptible to extended supply disruptions and a global slowdown....

When the fog of war is thick investors need hard facts and data to cut through the uncertainty. Unfortunately, when it comes to physical commodities, publicly available macro data obscures the reality of moving molecules around the world. Thankfully, we at BCA Research have spent the past eight deca...

President Trump offered to deescalate the conflict in the Middle East on March 23. In a series of wide-ranging comments, President Trump said that regime change had already been achieved, that negotiations with Tehran were progressing, and that he was pausing his threat to target Iranian energy infr...