Insights

The BoJ held rates overnight, but the direction of travel hasn’t changed. We discuss how stronger wages, rising inflation, and a weak yen point to further tightening ahead....

Based on our previous work on margins, three aspects of margins may matter to investors: their level, their variability, and their likely trend. We add two margin-themed baskets: a stock-level High & Stable vs. Low & Volatile basket and an industry-level AI-Supported vs. AI-Insulated basket....

Based on our previous work on margins, three aspects of margins may matter to investors: their level, their variability, and their likely trend. We add two margin-themed baskets: a stock-level High & Stable vs. Low & Volatile basket and an industry-level AI-Supported vs. AI-Insulated basket....

The S&P 500 finished last week at an all-time high as optimism over earnings has pushed the Iran conflict out of the spotlight. Despite uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz, we do not think investors have enough evidence to justify underweighting equities and other risk assets....

The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more likely the Eurozone will experience an economic recession, as higher energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and weaker global demand slowly grind the European economy to a halt. The relief rally is running out of time. Investors should add e...

Chinese onshore equities are riding the global “scarcity trade,” powered by tight semi supply and surging alternative-energy demand. How should investors position in this environment?...

The Iran war has damaged LNG production capacity and halted tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. We assess the conflict's impact on LNG markets over cyclical and structural horizons....

Most of the increase in S&P 500 earnings estimates this year has stemmed from shortages. The oil shortage, which has pushed up estimates for energy companies, will fade once the military conflict is resolved. However, the shortage of semiconductors and other AI paraphernalia could persist for a ...

In the US, the oil shock’s impact is more inflationary than recessionary but in the other economies, like the UK, the impact is both inflationary and recessionary. This creates relative value opportunities for bond investors. Plus, we reiterate short AUD/JPY as a trade....

With central banks largely on hold, the return of a lower volatility environment is bringing carry trades back into focus. We outline the most attractive carry opportunities across global fixed income markets....