Insights
Access expert research, timely insights, and exclusive webcasts to help you make confident, data-driven decisions.
Please join BCA Research Strategists, Matt Gertken, Yushu Ma and Jesse Kuri for a Webcast on the US Midterms.
Wednesday, May 13
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST |4:30 PM CEST
- Midterm elections occur every four years and thus constitute a normal risk, not significant uncertainty.
- But the midterms matter this year because they constrain the Trump administration's foreign policy, which threatens the global economy.
- The midterms will also act as a barometer on US public opinion and the likelihood of another massive reversal of national policy in 2028.
- We revised our quantitative election models to give a read on what range of outcomes to expect for the House and Senate.
- With this information, investors can begin to envision the next twists and turns in market-relevant US policy.
- We will also discuss President Trump's "lame duck" status after the midterms and the investment implications.
BCA Chief Strategists, Mathieu Savary, Roukaya Ibrahim, and Noah Weisberger looked at the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the implications for global financial markets.
Topics discussed:
- The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and energy markets are tightening again. Is the shock being underpriced?
- What would a sustained disruption mean for the global growth–inflation trade-off? Is stagflation risk creeping back?
- Within commodities, where is the real asymmetry now? What’s crowded, and what still offers upside?
- Can strategic reserve releases truly cap the rally, or do they just delay the adjustment?
- Equities have remained resilient. Are markets looking through the shock, or misreading it?
- Where is the tipping point: how much further can oil rise before equities reprice meaningfully?
- If crude continues higher, which sectors and factors offer the most convex exposure, not just beta?
- If flows normalize and oil rolls over, where does leadership rotate, and how quickly?
US Equity Strategy Webcast Series: Noah Holds Barred - Episode 2
Noah and Jason discussed:
- What earnings, revisions and expectations are telling us now
- The latest read on Tech revenues, capex, and demand for AI
- Why we are long Software
- The outlook for margins: Macro headwinds vs. AI
- Key feedback and pushback from 32 client meetings & 34 Lunch and Dinner attendees:
- The impact of AI IPOs, consumer spending trends, Utilities underweight
Please join Dhaval Joshi, Chief Strategist of the Counterpoint service, for a Webcast on:
Thursday, April 30
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST
In this Webcast, Dhaval will explore the interplay between two of the biggest macro drivers right now: Agentic AI; and the global commodity shock.
The discussion will include:
- Can agentic AI extend the tech capex cycle, and who are the winners and losers.
- Can agentic AI boost productivity growth.
- Is the oil shock inflationary, recessionary, or both.
- How does the oil shock’s impact vary by major economy.
- What are the investment conclusions.
If viewing in the BCA App, the live webcast can be viewed here.
Topics discussed:
- Update on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz: shipping, attacks, and the state of talks
- How is the global energy market absorbing the shock?
- How will central banks respond to the trade-off between growth and inflation?
- Should investors fade the USD rebound?
- How is the energy crisis rippling across other commodity markets?
Please join Chief EM/China Strategist, Arthur Budaghyan, for a Webcast on Thursday, April 23 at 2:00 PM EDT | 7:00 PM BST | 8:00 PM CEST.
Arthur will discuss:
- EM equities: A profitless rally
- EM structural profitability: Little improvement
- China: Making sense of the economy and stock market
- EM Local Bonds: Buy Back On Dips
- EM sovereign credit: As good as it gets
- EM equity and fixed income opportunities
Roukaya discussed:
- What is the status of the global and regional energy sector, including production and distribution?
- How should investors assess the Iran war’s impact on the energy market?
- How will the energy disruption ripple across other markets?
- What are the long-term commodity market implications of the Iran war?
Macro headlines may have shifted attention away from Private Markets, but the underlying risks remain. We revisit the Private Credit-Software cracks we flagged early and explain why, despite the noise, the structural story is just getting started.
- How did we get here?
- Is Software making or breaking Private Credit's diversification case?
- Systemic risk or a normal credit cycle?
- How are our 2024 calls on Distressed versus Buyouts playing out?
- Where are the most overlooked opportunities across Private (and Public) Markets right now?
Marko Papic, Matt Gertken, and Roukaya Ibrahim look at the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the implications for global financial markets.
Topics discussed:
- Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold? What should investors monitor to determine whether it is failing?
- How long will it take for energy flows and shipping to improve significantly? What would cause a relapse?
- Will the disconnect between financial markets and the real economic impact prove lasting or significant?
- How should investors position for the future evolution of commodity markets and commodity-linked assets?
- What other market dynamics will emerge and will Hormuz remain the central global focus?
Juan discussed:
- What are the consequences of the current oil shock to the global economy?
- How will policy makers respond to this shock?
- What indicators should investors be looking for a resolution?
- What indicators should investors look for to get more positive on equities?
- What are the long term consequences of the war?