On net, the upside risks to crude prices have increased. These dynamics are likely to produce volatility over the near term. Elevated geopolitical risks could sustain upward pressure on prices over the coming months. Nevertheless, the conditions are not yet in place to warrant a change to our cyclic...
I am starting to regret my decision to join the dark side a few months ago. The September jobs report was very strong. In the spirit of being a good Bayesian and adjusting my credences based on new information, I am revising down my 12-month US recession probability from 70% to 60% and shifting the ...
The bond market priced out a lot of recession risk after this morning’s employment report, and the 10-year Treasury yield has moved back into the Soft Landing Zone. We assess the data and consider whether we need to change our cyclical positioning....
Conditions are not yet in place for going long EM stocks in absolute terms and upgrading their allocation from neutral to overweight relative to global equities. The broad trade-weighted US dollar will likely rebound in the next three-to-four months, and global trade will contract. The recent weakne...
India’s credit impulse has turned negative. Government spending is contracting. The country’s growth will remain subdued; and both drivers of stock prices – profits and multiples – are headed lower at a time when equity valuations are at a record high....
Industrial Real Estate prices have risen considerably. The party is not over, but the music is dying down. A repricing is coming. Investors should be gearing up to deploy in 2026—California and Dallas will be prime....
I am not one to dismiss the ADP report. Unlike the establishment survey, the ADP numbers are based on hard data. If the ADP is not a reliable guide to the government’s payrolls estimates, maybe that is because the government’s payroll estimates are not a reliable guide to actual payrolls....
Absent the multi-decade housing and construction boom, China will be unable to generate the monster credit impulses that it did through 2000-20. Hence, the recent melt-up in Chinese stocks and China plays may last a few weeks more but is unlikely to be a rerun of the 2015 episode either in magnitude...
Western policymakers are pursuing three capital “T” Truths: China is evil, climate change is a major risk, and Russia is… also evil. Pursuing all three priorities at the same time presents a version of the classic “impossible trinity.”...
