We review some of the key data releases this week that we find have an impact on our currency strategy. Long yen positions make sense today. Long sterling and the euro bets are more of a judgment call, and we will fade any strength in these currencies. This report delves into these nuances, and sugg...
The four ASEAN stock markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines) have fallen in absolute terms over the past year despite the powerful rally in the developed markets. They have also underperformed their EM benchmark. Our Emerging Markets strategists posit that ASEAN stocks and curre...
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service remained tactically bullish on stocks for most of 2023, but shifted to neutral at the start of 2024, and downgraded stocks to underweight in late June. Its latest report fleshes out the team’s thinking in Q&A format. Our Global Investment colleagues ...
Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications....
Brazil’s two macro demons – a rising public debt-to-GDP ratio and inflation – have resurfaced and will worsen over the coming months. Yet, President Lula will pay lip service to fiscal concerns without enacting meaningful cutbacks. In addition, a politicized COPOM will cut rates aggressively next ye...
BCA Research has been writing extensively on how consumption fueled by excess savings has been propping up the US economy and prevented a recession in 2023. Now, many estimates of pandemic-era excess savings show that they have run out. While consumption is still robust, with June retail sales easil...
There is a broad-based deterioration of the economic data and a slowdown in consumer spending. On the bright side, inflation prints are better behaved. Rate cuts appear increasingly likely, but they won't stave off a recession. It is time to take profits from the GAI-related industries and bolster t...
