The September Euro Area Flash PMI release confirms that the region's economic outlook is deteriorating. Manufacturing activity is now fully contracting, and the new orders-to-inventory ratio is deteriorating anew. Services activity is losing some of its shine, especially in France, now that the Olym...
The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) raised interest rates last week. Is this the commencement of a major tightening cycle that will persist well into next year? Despite this move, we maintain that the BCB will cut interest rates substantially next year. We believe the Lula-nominated board members are p...
The PBoC lowered the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 bps on Monday, a move that follows a string of easing measures in late July when the central bank lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate, several maturities of the loan prime rate and the 1-year medium-term lending facility rate. Our China Investment ...
Preliminary estimates suggest that activity continued to slow across DM economies in September. Manufacturing PMIs contracted at a faster pace in the US, Eurozone, Germany, France and Australia, and grew at a slower pace in the UK. Services PMIs continued to expand in most regions, though the pace o...
In this report, we follow up on the Roundtable that we hosted on September 11. We summarize the results of the client polls and answer a few questions on top of investors’ minds....
The Draghi report highlights sensible reforms that would address many of Europe’s productivity shortcomings. Whether European capitals heed Mario Draghi’s advices remains to be seen....
Unlike public markets, performance in private markets is complex and multifaceted. In this report we present multiple metrics across time and sources, offering investors a comprehensive range of benchmarks to assess their relative performance. Differences across sources will surprise....
One key takeaway from Wednesday’s post-FOMC press conference is the Fed’s unshaken conviction that it can avoid a recession. A risk-on mood dominated markets on Thursday, with the S&P 500 breaching new all-time highs while the 10-year Treasury yield rose 3.5 basis points (see Indicator Spotlight). T...
In this report, we argue that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to hike interest rates this week, but the relative trajectory of bond yields in Japan is higher. This warrants an underweight position in JGBs and a leveraged bet on a higher yen. The positioning for equity investors is murkier, as progress...
