Macro regimes defined by different methodologies may share similar names but can vary significantly in terms of regime distribution and persistence. Such differences have caused confusions when it comes to analyze how equity factors perform at different stage of the cycle. In this report we propose ...
Just like the market for Oasis 2025 reunion tour tickets, the US labour market is ‘supply-constrained’. This means the US will not go into a GDP recession in the next few months and has a good chance of cheating one for longer. Without a GDP recession, there is unlikely to be an economy-wide profits...
We believe the PBoC’s recent policy stimulus might bolster investor confidence, potentially stabilize onshore Chinese equity prices, and provide modest support to offshore stocks. However, they are unlikely to significantly boost economic growth in the mainland....
We believe the PBoC’s recent policy stimulus might bolster investor confidence, potentially stabilize onshore Chinese equity prices, and provide modest support to offshore stocks. However, they are unlikely to significantly boost economic growth in the mainland....
Two days ago, I flagged how the number of people in the US who are working part time but would rather be working full time is rising, which usually only happens in the early stages of recessions....
As we head into a more turbulent macroeconomic and geopolitical period, investors should favor countries with newly elected government, small government size, and ample room to cut policy rate. Ideally, they should also be in a stable region, and not so dependent on the US or China. Hence, we are in...
We believe the PBoC’s recent policy stimulus might bolster investor confidence, potentially stabilize onshore Chinese equity prices, and provide modest support to offshore stocks. However, they are unlikely to significantly boost economic growth in the mainland....
The S&P Global flash PMIs released yesterday showed that the contraction in manufacturing activity accelerated on both sides of the Atlantic in September. The forward-looking new orders component fell to a 9-month low of 42.3 in the euro area and a 21-month low of 42.7 in the US....
