Emerging Markets Outlook
Identify global trends and domestic fundamentals that are shaping emerging market economies, uncovering underlying risks and market opportunities.
EM Domestic Bonds: Turbulence Before An Opportunity
EM local bonds face near-term turbulence from rising inflation, global risk aversion, and currency weakness. Use the sell-off to build exposure: medium- and longer-term fundamentals remain favorable.
Argentina: All Destruction, No Creation – Take Profits
If President Milei does not ease policy immediately to contain the disinflationary squeeze, he is likely to lose next year's election. This means neoliberal structural reforms will suffer a setback in…
Brazil: Political Ambitions Will Meet Economic Reality
The most bullish development for Brazil from the weekend’s elections was not the higher odds of a right-wing presidency, but the likely president’s (Flávio Bolsonaro) stronghold in Congress. Upgrade B…
The Bond Riot, The AI Peak, And The EM Mirage
US bonds will likely continue selling off until tighter financial conditions – most plausibly a double-digit decline in the S&P 500 – cool nominal growth. Higher discount rates will threaten US equity…
What We Got Right And What We Got Wrong
We review the track record of our broader investment strategy and individual calls. We also use this opportunity to close several positions that have become stale.
India: Time To Upgrade, Public And Private Markets
BCA's CoreMacro and Portfolio Construction teams combine two distinct but intersecting lenses to revisit a once heralded opportunity: India. We upgrade India across both public and private markets, bu…
