Emerging Markets Outlook
Identify global trends and domestic fundamentals that are shaping emerging market economies, uncovering underlying risks and market opportunities.
Brazil: Political Ambitions Will Meet Economic Reality
The most bullish development for Brazil from the weekend’s elections was not the higher odds of a right-wing presidency, but the likely president’s (Flávio Bolsonaro) stronghold in Congress. Upgrade B…
The Bond Riot, The AI Peak, And The EM Mirage
US bonds will likely continue selling off until tighter financial conditions – most plausibly a double-digit decline in the S&P 500 – cool nominal growth. Higher discount rates will threaten US equity…
What We Got Right And What We Got Wrong
We review the track record of our broader investment strategy and individual calls. We also use this opportunity to close several positions that have become stale.
India: Time To Upgrade, Public And Private Markets
BCA's CoreMacro and Portfolio Construction teams combine two distinct but intersecting lenses to revisit a once heralded opportunity: India. We upgrade India across both public and private markets, bu…
Will Bessenomics Avert A Stock-to-Bond Collision?
If bond yields rise due to widening bond term premiums or escalating inflation expectations, Bessenomics is unlikely to avert a stock-bond collision. Buy back gold mining stocks.
Brazil: Off Course
We are downgrading Brazilian equities from neutral to underweight and maintaining our underweights in Brazil's domestic bonds and sovereign credit within their respective EM portfolios. Go long Brazil…
