Global Macro & Investment Outlook
See how the global macro regime is shifting and what it means for markets, risk, and portfolio positioning.
A Unified Framework For Forecasting Bond Yields
We propose a unified framework for predicting the direction of short-term interest rates and long-term bond yields that brings together three approaches: 1) the saving-investment approach; 2) the Tayl…
What We Got Right And What We Got Wrong
We review the track record of our broader investment strategy and individual calls. We also use this opportunity to close several positions that have become stale.
Will Bessenomics Avert A Stock-to-Bond Collision?
If bond yields rise due to widening bond term premiums or escalating inflation expectations, Bessenomics is unlikely to avert a stock-bond collision. Buy back gold mining stocks.
Chief Economist’s View: Give Me Chastity But Not Yet
An acute shortage of AI hardware will support tech stocks into year-end. However, AI companies may need to ultimately generate $10 trillion per year in revenue to justify their capex. Barring a massiv…
What Really Ails China
China does not produce too much. It spends too little. The only viable way for China to reduce investment without raising unemployment is by lowering national savings. Doing so is likely to be politic…
Japanese Profit Margin Expansion: The End Is Nigh
Over the past 10 years, Japan’s profit margin expansion has been driven neither by advances in labor productivity nor by operational efficiency gains, but by massive currency devaluation and lower dep…
