Geopolitical Risks & Opportunities
Translate fast-moving political and geopolitical developments into probability-weighted market risks, opportunities, and positioning implications.
Pirates Get Paid: Limited Upside To Crude From Here
The situation in the Middle East is becoming complicated. Over the past week, several events raise the odds that Brent prices could burst through their 2026 high of $126 per barrel.
Liberation Day 2.0
President Trump is raising tariffs again, now through 2027 – and more countries will retaliate this time. While markets can climb over “Liberation Day 2.0,” investors should be wary of today's aggress…
Germany Is Not Reliving 1933
Alternative for Germany’s election win in the state of Saxony-Anhalt is overrated.
No Exodus From Treasuries … For Now
There is no evidence that there is a run on US government bonds. All the data at our disposal, and the curated views of our bond specialists, suggest that the US bond market may have 99 problems, but…
Trading Bonds On Vibes
Markets have become obsessed with the rise of global long-dated yields. To some extent, we agree with the concern. Bonds are trading on "vibes," alarmed by the incoherent US geopolitical policy. Oil p…
Woke 2.0 Can (And Will) Win In 2028
Our colleague Matt Gertken has penned a sober analysis on the midterms, calling for a Democratic Party sweep in 2026. It is a measured, data-driven, analysis that we encourage you to read.This quick I…
