Europe

In response to lower energy prices and China’s reopening, European assets prices are outperforming. Will the ECB spoil the party?

While the housing downturn will be fairly mild in the US, it will be more severe abroad. Continue to favor bonds of countries whose housing fundamentals will limit rate hikes.

The crucial question for 2023 is: will the US and UK Beveridge Curves shift back inwards to their pre-pandemic versions, ushering in a soft landing? Or, will we slide down the new post-pandemic Beveridge Curves into recession? Plus: we reveal the most important chart for Europe and the most important chart for China in early 2023.

The European Commission risks retarding the development of long-term contracting for renewable energy just as momentum is building.  Policy uncertainty will continue to dog firms and households in the EU, if the Commission's attempts to lower energy costs for consumers at the expense of renewable-energy producers by extending “windfall profits taxes” and mandated lower costs succeed.  Such measures will lower producers’ revenues, which will translate into lower renewables investment.