Economy

Executive Summary Chinese Onshore Stocks Are Less Impacted By External Factors We are upgrading Chinese onshore stocks from underweight to neutral relative to global stocks. At the same time, we are closing our tactical trade of long Chinese investable stocks/short global stocks. In the near term, Russia’s armed invasion of Ukraine will spark a further selloff in global risk assets. Volatility in Chinese onshore stock prices will remain high; A-share prices in absolute terms may also drop but should fall by less than their peers in European and emerging markets. On the other hand, Chinese offshore stocks are more vulnerable to geopolitical risks compared with their onshore counterparts. There are tentative signs that home prices may be stabilizing, although demand for housing remains in deep contraction. Chinese policymakers remain vigilant in preventing the property market from overheating and credit creation from overshooting. However, the ongoing Russia/Ukraine incursion has the potential to catalyze a larger stimulus package in China. If the escalating geopolitical crisis threatens the global economy, China’s authorities will likely strengthen policy supports at home to buttress the country’s domestic political, economic and financial conditions. Bottom Line: Chinese onshore stocks will weather the ongoing geopolitical storm better than their offshore and global peers. China’s economy is also less negatively impacted by the Russia/Ukraine hostilities. If the crisis deepens, China’s leadership will likely step up measures to support its economy and ensure stable domestic financial and political dynamics. Feature The conflict between Russia and Ukraine unnerved global financial markets in the past few weeks. Chinese offshore stocks were not insulated from the geopolitical event; the MSCI China Index declined by about 4% in February, in-line with the selloff in global stocks. Chart 1Chinese Onshore Financial Markets Held Up Relatively Well Last Month The current global geopolitical environment, however, has turned us a bit more positive on Chinese onshore stocks in relative terms. In the near term, the onshore market should hold up better than its offshore and European counterparts. China’s closed capital market prevents panic capital outflows and its large current account surplus as well as favorable real interest rate differentials help to maintain strength in the RMB (Chart 1). On a cyclical basis, China’s domestic economic fundamentals will continue to drive prices in the A-share market. China’s aggregate economy is less affected by the Russia/Ukraine conflict than Europe. Energy supplies from Russia to China will likely continue and may even accelerate, mitigating the risks of energy shock-induced inflation spikes. As such, we are upgrading Chinese onshore stocks from underweight to neutral in a global portfolio, both in tactical and cyclical time horizons. We remain cautious about the size of Chinese stimulus for the year and, therefore, are neutral in our cyclical view on Chinese onshore stocks relative to global equities. Despite some nascent signs of reflation and an easing of housing policy in a few Chinese cities, aggregate property demand remains weak and overall policy easing in the sector has been marginal. Nonetheless, the situation surrounding Ukraine and the global sanctions against Russia are highly fluid and may provide some ground for Chinese policymakers to ramp up stimulus at home. If the conflict intensifies and derails the European/global economy, Beijing will be more inclined to adopt measures to ensure the stability of its domestic economy, financial markets and political dynamics. Meanwhile, we are closing our long MSCI China/short MSCI global tactical trade. Chinese offshore stocks are more vulnerable to geopolitical tensions and risk-off sentiment among global investors. The Russia Incursion Has Limited Direct Impact On China’s Economy Chinese stocks were not immune last week to the global financial market’s gyrations triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While Russia’s attack on its neighbor will create short-term disruptions on the prices of global commodities and China’s A-shares, the cyclical performance of Chinese onshore stocks is tied to the country’s domestic economic fundamentals. The military conflict between Russia and Ukraine should have a limited knock-on effect on China’s business cycle dynamics for the following reasons: Russia and Ukraine together account for less than 3% of Chinese total exports as of 2021, limiting the negative impact from reduced demand in the region on China’s current account balance.  Chart 2Ukraine: China’s Major Source Of Agricultural Commodity Supplies Russia’s incursion of Ukraine may have consequences on China’s food prices. Ukraine is a major agricultural commodity exporter to China, hence a prolonged military conflict may disrupt agricultural supplies and push up imported food prices in China (Chart 2). In this scenario, we expect that Beijing will provide subsidies to ease pressures on domestic food prices due to supply shocks, rather than tighten monetary policy to reduce demand. China is unlikely to experience shocks linked to possible energy disruptions. Russia is a core exporter of energy to China and supplies of crude oil, natural gas and coal have increased in recent years (Chart 3). We do not expect that Russia’s energy supply to China will be disrupted. Indeed, following the 2014 Russia’s invasion of Crimea, Russia’s crude oil exports to China increased by 40% (Chart 3, top panel). We anticipate that oil prices will fall from the current level in the second half of the year, limiting the upshot from higher oil prices on Chinese inflation. So far, the US and EU have announced tough sanctions on Russia’s non-energy sectors, but they have avoided halting Russia’s energy exports. ​​​​​​​In the unlikely scenario that energy flows from Russia to Europe are disrupted in any meaningful and long-lasting way, either through European sanctions or a Russian embargo, Russia would probably turn to China to absorb its energy exports. Given that Russia cannot easily replace Europe with any other alternative market, particularly natural gas, China would gain an upper hand in price negotiations with the Russians (Chart 4). Thus, a steady supply of cheap natural gas and other forms of energy would be a net positive for China’s economy. Chart 4Russia Cannot Easily Replace Europe With Any Alternative Consumer Other Than China Chart 3Russia's Ties With China On Energy Supplies Will Likely Strengthen Meanwhile, oil’s current price spike may widen the gap in profits between China’s upstream and downstream industrial enterprises (Chart 5). However, the effect from higher oil prices on Chinese downstream manufacturers should be temporary. Our Commodity and Energy Strategists believe that the Russian invasion will prompt increased production from core OPEC producers. These production increases would reduce prices from last week’s $105 per barrel level to $85 per barrel by the second half of 2022 and keep it at that level throughout 2023 (Chart 6). Chart 6Crude Oil Price Risk Premium Will Abate But Not Disappear Chart 5Rising Oil Prices May Temporarily Widen Profit Gaps Between China's Up- And Downstream Industries Bottom Line: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should have a limited direct impact on China’s domestic economy, inflation and monetary policy. Tentative Signs Of Home Price Stabilization Although the property market is showing some signs of improvement, the aggregate demand for homes remains very sluggish. Recently released housing data in China show some slight progress, as fewer cities reported a month-on-month drop in new home prices in January (Chart 7). The monthly average new home prices among China’s 70 cities were broadly flat last month following four consecutive months of falling prices. Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities had the largest increases in home prices, whereas prices in other regions continued to contract through January, albeit to a lesser degree (Chart 7, bottom panel). The minor improvement in home prices reflects recently implemented measures to help shore up the flagging market. Last month, the PBoC cut the policy rate by 10 bps and reduced the one- and five-year loan prime rates by 10 bps and 5 bps, respectively. Moreover, last week several regional banks lowered the down payments on mortgages for homebuyers. Chart 8...Demand For Housing Remains In Deep Contraction Chart 7Although There Are Some Early Signs Of Stabilization In Home Prices... Nonetheless, the aggregate demand for housing remains weak. China’s 100 largest developers experienced a roughly 40% year-on-year plunge in total sales in January, indicating that recent easing measures failed to revive the downbeat sentiment among homebuyers (Chart 8). Bottom Line: Policymakers will remain vigilant in not inducing another surge in house prices and will continue to target steady home prices. As such, it is too early to upgrade our cyclical view on China’s property market, stimulus and economic recovery. Investment Conclusions We are upgrading Chinese onshore stocks to neutral relative to global equities (both tactically and in the next 6 to 12 months), while closing our tactical trade of long MSCI China/short MSCI global index. Chart 9Chinese Onshore Stock Prices Are Largely Driven By Domestic Rather Than External Factors... Given the limited impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict on China’s domestic economy and the low correlation to the global equity index, Chinese onshore stock prices may also fall in absolute terms in the coming weeks, but not by as much as their offshore and European counterparts (Chart 9). Furthermore, while we maintain a cautious cyclical outlook for China’s stimulus, the ongoing geopolitical crisis has the potential to provide a catalyst for Chinese policymakers to stimulate the domestic economy more forcefully. If the clash evolves into a real risk to the European economy and global financial markets, odds are high that Chinese policymakers will step up stimulus measures to ensure domestic stability. In this scenario, Chinese onshore stocks will likely outperform global equities. In the past, Chinese authorities refrained from a credit overshoot when the business cycle slowed in an orderly manner, but they stimulated substantially following an exogenous shock. For example, China rolled out massive stimulus packages after the 2008 Global Financial and the 2011/12 European credit crises. Beijing did not directly respond to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea with additional monetary support to China’s domestic economy. However, the Chinese authorities started to aggressively stimulate when a collapse in domestic demand coincided with a global manufacturing recession in 2015. Chart 10...Whereas Chinese Offshore Stocks Are More Vulnerable To Global Risk-Off Sentiment The PBoC’s outsized liquidity injection in the interbank system last Friday is also a sign that Beijing is willing to accelerate policy easing if the geopolitical backdrop meaningfully worsens.  Regarding Chinese investable stocks, we maintain our cyclical underweight stance relative to global equities. In the near term, risk-off sentiment among global investors will undermine the performance of Chinese offshore stocks in both absolute and relative terms (Chart 10). Over a longer time horizon (6 to 12 months), growth stocks will likely underperform value stocks when global stocks recover. Thus, the tech-heavy MSCI China Index is less attractive to investors compared with other emerging and developed market equities that are more value-centric. Jing Sima China Strategist jings@bcaresearch.com Strategic Themes Cyclical Recommendations Tactical Recommendations

Executive Summary Hopes of an imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will be dashed. The conflict will worsen over the coming days. As was the case during the original Cold War, both sides will eventually forge an understanding that allows the pursuit of mutually beneficial arrangements. A stabilization in geopolitical relations, coupled with fading pandemic headwinds, should keep global growth above trend this year, helping to support corporate earnings. The era of hyperglobalization is over. While central banks will temper their plans to raise rates in the near term, increased spending on defense and energy independence will lead to higher interest rates down the road. How Stocks Fared During The Cuban Missile Crisis Bottom Line: The near-term outlook for risk assets has deteriorated. We are downgrading global equities from overweight to neutral on a tactical 3-month horizon. We continue to expect stocks to outperform bonds on a 12-month horizon as the global economic recovery gains momentum. On an even longer 2-to-5-year horizon, equities are likely to struggle as interest rates rise more than expected.   Dear Client, Given the rapidly evolving situation in Ukraine, we are sending you our thoughts earlier than normal this week. We will continue to update you as events warrant it. Best regards, Peter Berezin Chief Global Strategist   False Dawn In the lead-up to the invasion, Vladimir Putin assumed that Ukrainian forces would fold just as quickly as US-backed Afghan forces did last summer. He also presumed that the rest of the world would reluctantly accept Russia’s takeover of Ukraine. Both assumptions appear to have been proven wrong. Even if Putin succeeds in installing a puppet government in Kyiv, a protracted insurgency is sure to follow. In the initial days of the invasion, Russian troops generally tried to avoid harming civilians, partly in the hope that Ukrainians would see the Russian military as liberators. Now that this hope has been dashed, a more brutal offensive could unfold. This would trigger even more sanctions, leading to a wider gulf between Russia and the West. It is highly doubtful that sanctions will dissuade Putin from trying to subdue Ukraine. Putin made a name for himself by staging a successful invasion of Chechnya in 1999, just three years after the Yeltsin government had suffered a major defeat there. To withdraw from Ukraine now, without having fomented a regime change in Kyiv, would be a humiliating outcome for him. In this light, BCA’s geopolitical team, led by Matt Gertken, has argued that ongoing peace talks taking place on the border of Ukraine and Belarus are unlikely to amount to much. The situation will get worse before it gets better. Market Implications It always feels a bit crass writing about finance during times like this, but as investment strategists, it is our job to do so. With that in mind, we would make the following observations: Global equities are likely to suffer another leg down in the near term as hopes of an imminent peace deal fizzle. Consequently, we are downgrading our view on global stocks from overweight to neutral on a 3-month horizon. Nimble investors with a low risk tolerance should consider going underweight equities. We are shifting our stance on US stocks from underweight to neutral on a 3-month horizon. Europe could face significant pressures from near-term disruptions to Russian gas supplies. It does not make much sense for Russia to export gas if it is effectively barred from accessing the proceeds of its sales. Central and Eastern Europe will be particularly hard hit (Chart 1). Chart 1Central and Eastern Europe Would Suffer The Most From A Russian Energy Blockade For now, we are maintaining an overweight to stocks on a 12-month horizon. While it will take a month or two, both sides will ultimately forge an understanding whereby Russia and the West continue to publicly bad-mouth each other while still pursuing mutually beneficial arrangements. Remember that during the Cold War, the Soviet Union continued to sell oil to the West. Even the Cuban Missile Crisis had only a fleeting impact on equities (Chart 2). Chart 2How Stocks Fared During The Cuban Missile Crisis Chart 3European Fiscal Policy Will Remain Structurally Looser Over The Coming Years Assuming that any reduction in Russian energy exports is temporary, oil prices will eventually recede. BCA’s commodities team, led by Bob Ryan, expects Brent to settle to $88/bbl by the end of 2022 (down from the current spot price of $101/bbl and close to the forward price of $87/bbl). Like oil, gold prices have upside in the near term but should edge lower once the dust settles.    Global growth should remain solidly above trend in 2022 as pandemic-related headwinds fade and fiscal policy turns more expansionary. Even before the Ukraine invasion, the structural primary budget deficit in Europe was set to swing from a small surplus to a deficit (Chart 3). The emerging new world order will lead to sizable additional military spending, as well as increased outlays towards achieving energy independence (new LNG terminals, more investment in renewables, and perhaps even some steps towards restarting nuclear power programs). China will also step up credit easing and fiscal stimulus. This will not only benefit the Chinese economy, but it will also provide some much-needed support to European exporters (Chart 4). While credit spreads are apt to widen further in the near term, corporate bonds should benefit from stronger growth later this year. US high-yield bonds are pricing in a jump in the default rate from 1.3% over the past 12 months to 4.2% over the coming year, which seems somewhat excessive (Chart 5).  Chart 4Chinese Policy Will Be A Tailwind For Growth Chart 5Credit Markets Are Pricing In An Excessive Default Rate Central banks will temper their plans to raise rates in the near term. Investors and speculators are net short duration at the moment, which could amplify any downward move in bond yields (Chart 6). However, over a multi-year horizon, recent events will lead to both higher inflation and interest rates. Larger budget deficits will sap global savings. The retreat from globalization will also put upward pressure on wages and prices. As defensive currencies, the US dollar and the Japanese yen will strengthen in the near term as the conflict in Ukraine escalates. Looking beyond the next few months, the dollar will weaken. On a purchasing power parity basis, the dollar is amongst the most expensive currencies (Chart 7). For example, relative to the euro, the dollar is 22% overvalued (Chart 8). The US trade deficit has doubled since the start of the pandemic, even as equity inflows have dipped (Chart 9). Speculators are long the greenback, which raises the risk of an eventual reversal in dollar sentiment. Chart 6Short Duration Is A Crowded Trade Chart 7The US Dollar Is Overvalued…   Chart 8...Especially Against The Euro The freezing of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves will encourage China to diversify away from US dollars towards hard assets such as land and infrastructure in economies where they are less likely to be seized. It will also encourage the Chinese authorities to bolster domestic demand and permit a further modest appreciation of the RMB since these two steps will reduce the current account surpluses that make foreign exchange accumulation necessary. EM currencies will benefit from this trend. Chart 9The Trade Deficit Is A Headwind For The Dollar In summary, the near-term outlook for risk assets has deteriorated. We are downgrading global equities from overweight to neutral on a tactical 3-month horizon. We continue to expect stocks to outperform bonds on a 12-month horizon as the global economic recovery gains momentum. On an even longer 2-to-5-year horizon, equities are likely to struggle as interest rates rise more than expected. Trade Update: We closed our long Brent oil trade for a gain of 24% last week. Earlier today, we were stopped out of the trade we initiated on September 16, 2021 going long the Russian ruble and the Brazilian real. The BRL leg was up 6.2% at the time of termination while the RUB leg was down 23.1% (based on the Bloomberg RUB/USD Carry Return Index as of 4pm EST today). Peter Berezin Chief Global Strategist peterb@bcaresearch.com View Matrix Special Trade Recommendations Current MacroQuant Model Scores

Special Report

Executive Summary Through February 24th, our ETF portfolio outperformed its benchmark by 18 basis points. Its risk-friendly orientation helped it generate double that amount of outperformance in its first two weeks but cost it as markets broadly declined over the last two weeks. In line with our fixed income strategists’ recommendation, we are tactically shifting our fixed income positioning to neutral duration from below-benchmark duration. Our longer-run expectation for higher interest rates remains intact. We are not making any portfolio adjustments in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although the situation is fluid, we share the BCA house view that the conflict will be narrowly confined to Ukraine and the Black Sea as long as the flow of energy between Russia and the EU continues unabated. Ukraine underscores the potential for volatility to surge from an already elevated base as news items interact with uncertainty about the Fed. We will continue to manage the ETF portfolio with a more tactical bent than we otherwise would. 2022 Rate Hike Expectations Have Gone Too Far Bottom Line: Russia’s movements of troops and materiel have been weighing on equity markets. Now that it has made its move, the bottom of the range may be near. Feature This is the first of a series of monthly reports devoted to the ETF portfolio we launched at the end of January. Each report will review the previous month’s performance, tracking the portfolio's relative return and highlighting its key contributors. More importantly, it will reassess our forward-looking views and situate them in an asset allocation/portfolio construction context. This monthly report will also be our primary vehicle for making portfolio adjustments, though we will make intra-month changes if market prices or our views change enough to merit them. In the immediate future, the conflict in Ukraine looms large. Russia’s full-scale incursion into Ukraine on February 24th roiled global financial markets, especially in Europe, with US equities executing a stunning reversal, exemplified by the high-beta NASDAQ, which fell 3% in overnight futures trading before recovering all the decline en route to a 3% gain in the live session. The wild action highlighted the potential for volatility to spike while investors are already on edge over unusually high inflation and the Fed’s attempts to contain it. We reiterate that we expect volatility will remain elevated this year and perhaps across the entire rate hiking cycle. Looking Ahead On a call last week, a client asked us if we were more confident or less confident in our views than we were on our quarterly webcast two weeks ago. Though no major new data had arrived in the interim (and Russia had not yet invaded Ukraine), we responded that our conviction level was unchanged to slightly higher, given the comfort we derived from our fixed income colleagues’ well-reasoned argument for why they think rates have peaked in the near term and our own analysis of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey respondents’ perceptions of inflation. The Ukraine conflict has the potential to push energy prices higher in the very near term, but it does not alter our six-to-twelve-month view. Chart 1Entering The Fourth Wave Of Persistently High Volatility? Chart 2A Whole Lot Of Dry Powder ... We are still constructive on financial markets and the economy, as well, though we expect that geopolitics may well provide a catalyst for rolling surges in the already elevated VIX (Chart 1). The escalation of the Ukraine conflict will temporarily preserve the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude oil prices, but the evergreen commodity rule that high prices are the best cure for high prices will soon assert itself. Our Commodity & Energy Strategy team projects that oil producers will ramp up supply sufficient to dislodge the risk premium by the end of the year, taking Brent crude down to $85 a barrel, where it expects it will remain throughout 2023. While high oil prices are a tax on economic activity, their adverse effect on the US is mitigated by its status as the world’s largest oil producer. Our positive outlook for the US economy rests on our expectation that flush American households will begin drawing down their mountain of pandemic savings (Chart 2, bottom panel) now that COVID infections are less numerous (Chart 3, top panel) and less serious (Chart 3, bottom panel). As the pandemic wanes, households will regain their full range of consumption options, from dining out and in-person entertainment to travel and lodging. Our base-case outlook has them spending about half of their $2-plus trillion of pandemic savings, but we note that they can draw upon other pools of capital. Household net worth has surged at a record rate over the eight quarters of the pandemic as the value of financial assets and homes surged, and banks are eager to help consumers deploy their idle credit capacity to top up their buying power (Chart 4). Chart 3... Is Ready To Be Deployed Now That Omicron Is Out Of The Way Chart 4Banks Are Eager To Lend To Consumers Persistent inflation could erode some of that buying power while weighing on consumer sentiment. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has the potential to push food costs higher along with energy costs, as Ukraine is a top ten producer of both corn and wheat and Russia is a global wheat heavyweight, but emerging markets are likely to bear the brunt of higher agricultural commodity prices as the US and the EU are net exporters of both grains. As detailed below, we expect inflation will soon peak and begin decelerating at a rapid clip, so we do not expect higher prices to weaken the consumption tailwind, no matter what the Ukraine affair may bring. We continue to have very high conviction that the US will grow well above trend in 2022 and expect that S&P 500 earnings per share will grow in the mid-to-high single digits. Yields Have Backed Up Enough (For Now) We expect that volatility will remain elevated throughout this year and perhaps over the course of the Fed’s entire rate-hiking campaign as investors navigate an unfamiliar inflation backdrop and the Fed grapples with the challenges of normalizing monetary policy after a decade and a half of extraordinary accommodation. We have therefore recommended that investors consider adopting a more tactical approach to portfolio management and we are committed to following our own advice in the ETF portfolio. Although our cyclical view of interest rates has not changed – we expect they are ultimately headed higher than bond market participants do – we are persuaded by our fixed income colleagues’ argument that they’ve backed up too much too soon. We are therefore unwinding our below-benchmark duration positioning in the fixed income segment of our portfolio and tactically shifting to benchmark duration. Our colleagues cite several reasons for their call, but they all coalesce around the way that relentless upside inflation surprises have prompted aggressive rate hike expectations. They argue that market participants have overestimated how much the FOMC will hike the fed funds rate this year, as the overnight index swap curve is now pricing in about 150 basis points (bps) of hikes (Chart 5). That is well above the FOMC’s median 75-bps projection in December, and even though the official projection will rise at the March meeting, there is almost no chance that the committee’s guidance will be more hawkish than what the market is already discounting. Since the FOMC cannot surprise to the upside, rate hike expectations cannot push yields any higher for now. Chart 5Interest Rate Markets Have Gotten Ahead Of Themselves The uninterrupted run of upside US inflation surprises drove the bond market to ramp up its rate hike expectations, but we expect that US inflation will peak this spring and decelerate rapidly to less uncomfortable levels, even though they will remain well above the Fed’s 2% target. The Manufacturing ISM Prices Paid Index, which leads headline inflation by six months (Chart 6, middle panel), reflects the deceleration in commodity and other input prices that is already underway (Chart 6, top panel). The ISM Supplier Deliveries Indexes suggest that global supply chain pressures have already started to ease (Chart 6, bottom panel). Ukraine disruptions aside, our commodity and energy strategists see oil price momentum losing steam, with Brent crude falling to $85 per barrel in the second half of the year and holding at that level across 2023 (Chart 7). Chart 6Good Tidings From The ISM Survey ...​​​​​ Chart 7... And Relief On The Oil Front As COVID recedes and people can resume typical day-to-day activities, consumer spending will continue to shift from goods to services (Chart 8). High-demand goods in categories subject to supply constraints have undergone a natural experiment in surge pricing. With supply at a deficit relative to demand, prices have risen to ration items like new automobiles to purchasers with the greatest time preference. Easing supply chain bottlenecks will help on the supply side of the equation and the new availability of services alternatives – attending live events instead of upgrading home theater and audio systems, going to the gym instead of buying home exercise equipment, taking a summer vacation instead of building a new backyard deck – will help relieve some of the upward pressure on demand. Chart 8When Demand Shifts To Services ...​​​​​​ Chart 9... Inflation Will Ease A shift in spending patterns favoring services will allow headline inflation to move away from extreme double-digit goods inflation to merely elevated services inflation (Chart 9). Chart 10No One Left To Sell Our colleagues also expect that upward pressure on wages, which has been concentrated in service-sector positions at the low end of the scale, will ease as Omicron fades and workers are able to return to the labor force without fearing for their health. The tightening of financial conditions that has occurred as rates have backed up and equity prices have fallen will cool growth momentum and reduce the potential for overheating. With inflation soon peaking and longer-run inflation expectations having remained well anchored, the Fed will feel less pressure to hike rates according to markets’ accelerated timetable. Finally, Treasury market positioning is now so unbalanced to the short side that investors would appear to be nearly out of selling capacity to push yields higher (Chart 10). Bottom Line: We expect that Treasury yields will ultimately rise much higher than the bond market currently anticipates, but the forces that have pushed them sharply higher since early December are spent. The near-term path of least resistance for bond yields is to the downside and we are shifting to a tactically neutral duration position to prepare for it. Portfolio Changes We are leaving our current equity positioning intact, as it remains appropriate to overweight the energy, industrials and financials sectors while avoiding consumer staples and utilities and maintaining direct out-of-benchmark exposure to the S&P 500 Pure Value Index via RPV and to the S&P SmallCap 600 Index via IJR (please refer to Cyclical ETF Portfolio table on page 11). We are reducing our exposure to the 1- to 3-year segment of the Treasury curve by 200 bps (SHY) and to the 3- to 7-year segment by 60 bps (IEI) and increasing our exposure to the 7- to 10-year segment by 260 bps (IEF) to bring portfolio Treasury duration into balance with the benchmark. We are exiting LQDH, the rate-hedged investment-grade corporate bond ETF, and reallocating the proceeds to its unhedged LQD version to bring corporate bond duration into balance. Portfolio Performance Market volatility and equity declines over the past ten trading days have cut its alpha in half, but the risk-friendly cyclical ETF portfolio we introduced last month has nevertheless outperformed its benchmark by 18 basis points (“bps”) through last Thursday’s close. Our equity positioning accounted for most of the value-add (Chart 11). Rising yields were a significant tailwind given our short duration stance. They also supported our value and small-cap tilts and, to a lesser extent, our overweight position in financials. The surge in energy prices generously rewarded our energy equities overweight (XLE). Chart 11Direct Equity Sector Deviations Widening spreads since the beginning of the year were a headwind to our positioning within the fixed-income space (Chart 12). Our overweight to variable-rate preferred stocks (VRP) as an alternative to dearly priced bonds was the main detractor. Chart 12Fixed Income Deviations Doug Peta, CFA Chief US Investment Strategist dougp@bcaresearch.com Jennifer Lacombe Associate Editor jenniferl@bcaresearch.com Cyclical ETF Portfolio