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Economy

CoreMacro
Where Things Stand

Stocks should continue to rally in the near term, but investors should prepare to turn more defensive towards the end of the year in advance of a recession in 2024.

Peter Berezin
3 years ago
Essentials
Will The ECB Hike Again?
Euro Area inflation data surprised to the upside on Wednesday. According to preliminary data, although Germany’s harmonized headline CPI inflation rate fell from 6.5% y/y to 6.4% y/y in August, it nevertheless came in above consensus estimates calling for a…
3 years ago
Essentials
US GDO Growth Accelerates In Q2
US Q2 GDP growth was revised down from 2.4% to 2.1% on a quarterly annualized basis, only slightly above Q1 growth of 2.0%. Although consumption was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7%, business spending grew at a slower pace than initially reported…
3 years ago
Essentials
US LEI: Signal Or Noise?
Consensus expectations for the US economy were bleak at the start of the year. In hindsight, this pessimism was excessive: real GDP expanded in the first two quarters of the year (see Country Focus). Similarly, the US Conference Board’s Coincident Economic…
3 years ago
Essentials
US Small Caps: Will The Rally Be Reignited?
After having sold off in the first five months of the year, the performance of small-cap stocks improved in June and July with the S&P 600 index gaining 13.9% in those two months. A broadening of the US equity rally – which earlier in the year was…
3 years ago
Essentials
The Odds Of Bull-Steepening
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service’s base case outlook calls for a modest curve steepening as wage growth and inflation fall. Odds are that the next big yield curve move will be a bull-steepening that coincides with the onset of the next recession and…
3 years ago
FICC
Some Lessons From Jackson Hole And A Shift In Our Yield Curve Positioning

We comment on Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and recommend shifting to a barbelled allocation along the Treasury curve.

Ryan Swift
3 years ago
CoreMacro
Copper Prices: On A Downward Slope
Special Report

Contrary to the widespread belief in the investment community, the global copper supply-demand balance is no longer in deficit. Red metal prices are set to decline by another 10-15% as the global copper market will shift to a larger surplus in the next six months.

3 years ago
China
CoreMacro
French Luxuries Trump US Technology

The stock market’s pre-eminent growth sector is not US tech, it is French luxuries. No other sector can compare with French luxuries’ massive and sustained pricing power. The risk for French luxuries is not a China slowdown, the risk is that the structural increase in super-wealth comes to an end. If anything though, the coming disruption from generative AI will boost super-wealth. Ironically therefore, the best investment play on generative AI might be French luxuries.

Dhaval Joshi
3 years ago
Essentials
JOLTS: A Cooling US Labor Market
On Tuesday, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated that the US labor market continues to cool. It showed job openings fell to 8.827 million in July following a downwardly revised 9.165 million in June (down from the earlier estimate of…
3 years ago

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