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Refiners will reduce run rates over the next month or so to clear unintended inventory accumulation, but it's not like they've never had to deal with this situation.

In successful investment analysis "less is more, and usually much more effective."

There has not been much of an improvement/recovery in the Chinese economy. Credit growth is weakening anew, which warrants a downbeat cyclical outlook for China's industrial sectors. Malaysia is heading into a classic credit/banking downturn. Go short Malaysian banks stocks and short the ringgit versus the U.S. dollar. In South Africa, take profits on the yield curve flattening trade. Continue shorting the rand versus the U.S. dollar.

The latest data releases confirm that the Chinese economy regained its footing. In the near term, growth figures should continue to surprise to the upside. Earnings preannouncements by Chinese listed firms show a significant acceleration in earnings in the second quarter from a year ago, while the market continues to expect sharp earnings contractions for Chinese companies.

Special Report

Our newly-developed European bottom-up Corporate Health Monitor is signaling that European corporate balance sheets, in aggregate, are steadily improving.

Developed Market bond yields are too low relative to improving global growth and the strong recovery in risk assets post-Brexit. Reduce portfolio duration to below-benchmark.