Latest from BCA Research

Clearing the refined-product overhang in the global storage markets is not as straightforward as it used to be: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), China, and India all are making concerted efforts to boost refining capacity, which is leaving them with surplus product that ends up being sold in export markets.

A collection of 10 important charts to monitor closely through the summer months.

Bank Credit Analyst

The 35-year bond bull market is coming to an end and the downward sloping trend channel for yields is changing to flat. Asset allocators should trim duration and fixed income exposure.

Bank Credit Analyst

The 35-year bond bull market is coming to an end and the downward sloping trend channel for yields is changing to flat. Asset allocators should trim duration and fixed income exposure.

Special Report

Chinese banks have been writing off impaired loans, and the pace has quickened sharply in recent years. This has been largely ignored by investors. Under a rather extreme scenario, Chinese commercial banks' NPL ratio could reach 14%, which could lead to a 30% hit to banks' net equity base. Chinese banks H shares have already priced in this scenario.

The ongoing stampede into EM bonds is unsustainable. Running away from G7 bonds does not necessarily entail buying EM bonds. These are two separate investment decisions. Lower commodities prices, weaker EM currencies and higher G7 bond yields will undermine EM bond returns going forward. A new relative bond trade: long Polish and Hungarian 5-year / short South African and Turkish 5-year local bonds, currency unhedged.

Special Report

The GAA Equity Sector Selection Model recommends tilts to the 10 GICS global sectors covered in our sector selection by applying a framework of growth, liquidity, momentum and valuation. Its mandate is to generate alpha in both cyclical upturns and downturns and does so by capturing turns in business cycles.