Latest from BCA Research

Special Report

The BoE is the key to arrest the meltdown in UK assets, but will the malaise engulfing London only end up traveling to Rome?

We share our thoughts about some of the less-discussed topics that came up across three weeks of face-to-face discussions with investors. We retain our conviction that the American consumer’s demise has been greatly exaggerated, and it continues to underpin our constructive near-term view on the US economy.

Inflation is sticky, growth slowing, and central banks will stay hawkish. Not all the bad news is priced in. Stay cautious: Underweight equities, overweight government bonds.

Investors should go long US treasuries and stay overweight defensive versus cyclical sectors, large caps versus small caps, and aerospace/defense stocks. Regionally we favor the US, India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, while disfavoring China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, eastern Europe, and the Middle East.

This week’s Global Investment Strategy report titled Fourth Quarter 2022 Strategy Outlook: A Three-Act Play discusses the outlook for the global economy and financial markets for the rest of 2022 and beyond.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section I, we note that the Fed’s new interest rate projections show that US monetary policy is set to rise soon into restrictive territory even relative to what we consider to be the neutral rate of interest, and to a level that has been consistent with the onset of recession since the 1960s. Imminent supply-side and pandemic-related disinflation is crucial for the US to avoid a recession over the coming year. Stay neutral stocks versus bonds for now, but the next shift in our recommended asset allocation stance is more likely to be a downgrade to underweight rather than an upgrade to overweight. In Section II, a guest piece from our European Investment Strategy service discusses the outlook for European assets.

Bank Credit Analyst