Latest from BCA Research

In this Strategy Insight, we go over the RBA’s recent decision and the implications of its hawkish message for AUD trades.

Biden’s State of the Union address will mostly be blocked by a gridlocked Congress. The one point of agreement, big spending, spells trouble over the long run, even if a technical default is avoided this fall.

The Fed is betting that the usual non-linearity of unemployment is different this time, but so far, there is nothing to suggest that it is different. We discuss the key signposts to watch out for, plus the implications for interest rates and asset allocation.

In this Strategy Insight, we go over the RBA’s recent decision and the implications of its hawkish message for AUD trades.

Special Report

Copper prices are vulnerable to the downside in the coming months on a narrowing global supply-demand deficit. We expect that copper prices will plummet by 15-20% from the current level. However, the lingering structural supply deficit will put a floor under copper prices after this correction.

Special Report

This is the first of two Special Reports aiming to answer client questions in response to the recent dramatic changes in stock-bond correlations. In this report we focus on what role US Treasurys have played since 1872, how the current regime shift in stock-bond correlation compares to 150-years of history, and how it will impact asset allocation going forward.

The Small Caps and high vol stocks outperform during an optimistic January. As a result of its low vol tilt, USHQ underperformed the SPY, however the USHQ SMID Cap strategy outperformed its benchmark through strong selection in growth sectors.

The risk-reward profile of Egyptian domestic bonds are very attractive over the next six to 12-months. Go Long.

Special Report

Markets are rallying because the end of the rate hiking cycle is in sight. We believe that eventually concerns about slowing growth will displace worries about the Fed and inflation, but for now, we are getting on board with the rally. We are upgrading Small to overweight and downgrading Large to underweight from neutral. Small is to benefit from rate stabilization, a rally in Treasurys, and a reset in earnings growth expectations. This is a tactical allocation as we are still cautious about overweighing US equities on a strategic basis.

Mexico is caught between crosscurrents. On the one hand, headline and core inflation are at multi-decade highs. On the other hand, genuine inflationary pressures are subdued, and fiscal and monetary policies are hawkish. Going forward, the economy will decelerate meaningfully, but likely achieve a soft landing as the central bank will be able to cut rates in H2 2022. Further, the nation’s healthy external accounts will put a floor in the domestic slowdown. We continue to overweight Mexico across all EM asset classes.