Latest from BCA Research

In this week’s report, we speculate on the evolution of euro trading in light of the near-term hiccups, but tremendous value that can be unlocked for longer-term investors.

The BCA Style Score now favors large-cap value and the MacroQuant Sector model downgraded materials and communication services. As an addendum, we look at the average Value and Quality scores per sector for small caps and generate a screen based on the results.

In this week’s report, we speculate on the evolution of euro trading in light of the near-term hiccups, but tremendous value that can be unlocked for longer-term investors.

Rather than teetering into recession, global growth has firmed since the start of the year. While we still expect inflation to decline, the risk that central banks will need to lift rates more than discounted has increased. Long-term focused investors should start raising cash allocations by trimming their equity holdings.

Central Banks remain in thrall to the mistaken impression that backwardated oil futures markets are signaling lower headline inflation over the next 2-3 years. This is not the signal the markets are sending: Backwardation is an indication inventories are being drawn down to cover a physical supply deficit brought about by strong demand. We remain long broad equity-market exposure to energy producers via the XOP ETF, and to outright commodity exposure (and backwardation) via the COMT ETF.

The MacroQuant model is bearish on equities, overweight bonds, and neutral on cash. Within equities, it is underweight EM and overweight Europe.

US domestic politics, hypo-globalization, and Great Power Competition favor a revival of US manufacturing capacity. The industrial sector will benefit from the attempt to rebuild US manufacturing. Go long physical infrastructure and defense stocks. Find opportunities to take a long position on the universe versus the metaverse.

China’s housing market adjustment will be protracted, causing several years of sub-par growth in the world’s second largest economy. We go through the major investment implications.

Special Report

Global demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) remains in a long-term uptrend, propelled by falling battery prices, improved driving range and an upgraded charging infrastructure. That said, diminishing policy support in China and Europe will spark a drop in the growth rate of global NEV sales to about 35% this year, down from about 60% last year. Global NEV-related stocks are likely to rise on a structural basis, but we recommend that investors wait for a better entry point given that valuations remain high.

The rebound in growth is pushing up inflation. More aggressive monetary policy is likely to trigger recession over the next 12 months or so. Investors should stay defensive.