Latest from BCA Research

The S&P 500 rally broadened in July, lifting this year’s laggards. Surging long yields are altering the macroeconomic backdrop, as the market absorbs that monetary policy will stay restrictive for a long time. Yet, a move down in yields is more likely than a move up over a tactical horizon. Q2 earnings were better than expected but investors were unimpressed – the good news is already priced in. The market is overvalued and is close to being overbought, which makes it vulnerable to disappointment.

August offers an opportunity to review our key views. European growth is turning the corner and inflation is improving, but does it guarantee an imminent breakout in European stocks?

Some thoughts on this week’s bear-steepening of the Treasury curve and this morning’s employment report.

Value, Size, and Quality all outperformed in July. Both the USHQ Large Cap and Small-to-Mid cap portfolios performed broadly inline with their benchmarks. We also break down the Q2 2023 earnings releases so far, where banks and Financials surprised to the upside.

China’s extremely high savings rate is the real culprit behind its current economic woes. The authorities have been slow to stimulate the economy, and the risks of “Japanification” have increased. For now, the fact that China is exporting deflation is not such a bad thing. However, if global recession risks were to flare up again, a lethargic Chinese economy would be a cause for concern. Chinese stocks are quite cheap but lack a clear catalyst to move higher. Favor EM markets where earnings and sales estimates have been moving up lately.

In this insight, we assess the prospect of the Swiss franc over the next six months.

Special Report

The odds of Russia cutting oil output will rise going into 4Q23, as Ukraine’s endgame increases pressure on it, and it actively seeks to undermine President Biden’s re-election. We reckon a 2mm b/d cut would push Brent above $140/bbl by December 2024. This would push inflation and inflation expectations higher and raise the odds of more Fed rate hikes. BCA Commodity & Energy Strategy will remain long the COMT and XOP ETFs. At tonight’s close, we will be getting long December 2024 $100/bbl Brent calls.

The Global Equity Score falls slightly but remains neutral, ending its 7-month up-trend. We use this possible inflection point signal to look into how the ACWI behaves over different forward return horizons based on the level and change in the Global Equity Score. We find the current score dynamics support a "fat and flat" view of risk and return over the remainder of the year.

Special Report

The Supreme Court is a generator of certainty rather than uncertainty for US markets. In the event of a constitutional crisis, a court intervention will likely reduce volatility.

Collapsed complexity, plus the unwinding of favourable base effects and favourable seasonal adjustments to the inflation and jobs numbers, all pose a danger to the Goldilocks market.