Latest from BCA Research
In this report, we assess the best opportunities in inflation-linked bonds in the major developed economies, based on trends in growth, inflation and the stance of monetary policies in each country. We conclude that the environment is turning more challenging for European inflation-linked bond performance versus nominal government bonds, while the opposite is true in Japan. In the US, US TIPS breakevens have likely peaked, particularly at the short end.
At 19x forward earnings, the S&P 500 still appears expensive which heralds lower returns over the months ahead. Technicals are marginally more attractive now, with 56% percent of the industries trading above their 200-day moving average. However, historically, the market has rarely bottomed out until more than half of industries were trading below their long-term moving average. Therefore, it is likely that the market pullback has not run its course just yet.
Most diagnoses of China’s liquidity trap miss the point that policies arising from these theories were developed for market-based economies with governments accountable to their electorates, not autocracies pursuing autarky. As the CCP widens and deepens mass-mobilization campaigns, the echo of the Cultural Revolution will grow louder and lead to further retrenchment by households and firms. China has space at the center for significant fiscal stimulus, which, if deployed, could break its liquidity trap and boost commodity demand.
While it may be tempting to bottom fish, we advise that investors maintain a cautious stance on Argentinian sovereign credit. Even though the election of a right-wing candidate in the coming months may boost investor sentiment, the country still faces major headwinds: more currency devaluation, and another possible default/debt restructuring.
Deflation prevails in China’s economy. Marginal interest rate cuts will be insufficient to boost growth as the economy is experiencing debt deflation and might be entering a liquidity trap. There will likely be more economic disappointments in the coming months. Chinese stocks will continue to sell off. Government bond yields will fall to new lows, and the RMB will depreciate further against the US dollar.
Investors should prepare for an equity market pullback this fall, prefer Treasuries over stocks, and US defensives over cyclicals. A pullback could also morph into another bear market given that monetary policy is tight, policy uncertainty will spike, global growth is slowing, and geopolitical risks are still high.
Indian stocks have gone up this year even as the broader EM markets have been falling. How long can Indian markets continue to rise?
European yields are testing the upper end of their recent trading range. Is the European economic outlook consistent with an imminent breakout?