GeoMacro

Cybersecurity costs continue to climb, which compels companies and governments alike to increase spending on cybersecurity to bolster digital protection. This will boost sales of companies in the cybersecurity ecosystem. While performance of the cybersecurity cohort may be volatile over a short investment horizon, it has significant long-term investment potential. Cybersecurity is a USES strategic investment theme.

Special Report

Spain is holding a general election this Sunday and the country is likely to veer to the right. Will this shift threaten European unity and herald a new period of tensions in the Eurozone?

Falling inflation enables central banks to pause rate hikes, which is good news. But time goes on. Restrictive monetary policy, Chinese debt-deflation, energy supply shocks, US and global policy uncertainty, and extreme geopolitical risks will undermine hopes of a soft landing and beautiful disinflation.

Positive economic surprises have delayed the onset of recession in the United States. But tighter monetary and fiscal policy, slowing global growth, and a looming rebound in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk suggest that investors should buy insurance while it is cheap.

Special Report

The Russian mutiny reveals the underlying trend of domestic instability. Russian instability is negative for global stability. The endgame of the war in Ukraine is exacerbating the problem, likely pushing up the equity risk premium.

Special Report

We are strategically bullish on the outlook of the energy sector. Domestic and external political constraints asserted themselves, restraining the most negative impulse against this sector by the Biden administration. Go long energy versus cyclicals (ex-tech).

In response to the first-ever federal indictment of a former President, investors should focus on the state of the economy and not on Trump’s legal trouble. They should also use the current market rally to stock up on protection, as a recession is still likely, albeit delayed.

Special Report

It is easy to claim that the ECB is failing in light of today’s elevated inflation readings. Yet, the reality is more subtle and the ECB’s performance lays the ground for stronger growth ahead.

Special Report

The aerospace and defense industry faces several short-term headwinds such as the defense budget standoff, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages. But most of these will clear in the near term, and a relief rally is likely. Ensuing global geopolitical risks and rivalry will remain a long-term tailwind, bolstering the industry over a long-term horizon. Remain overweight.

Special Report

Now that the French pension reforms have been passed, President Macron’s focus will be on the international stage. Where are the risks and opportunities for French assets created by this pivot?