Economy
Feature Downside Risks Haven't Gone Away We downgraded risk assets to neutral in last month's Quarterly Portfolio Outlook,1 citing an increasing number of risks to the equity bull market. Specifically, we warned about the slowdown and desynchronization of global growth, rising U.S. inflation, further deterioration in the trade war, and the ongoing slowdown in China. Markets - particularly in the U.S. - have stabilized somewhat over the past few weeks on the expectation that these risks are not particularly grave, that global growth remains robust, and that central banks will be slow to tighten. We accept that there remain upside risks (which is why we are neutral, not underweight, equities) but think many investors remain too sanguine about the downside risks. On desynchronized growth, it is true that the slowdown in the euro zone seems to have bottomed. The Citi Economic Surprise Indexes (Chart 1) suggest that downward surprises to euro zone and Japanese growth have ended, and that the U.S. is no longer surprising significantly to the upside. However, the likely path of inflation in the two regions looks very different, with U.S. core PCE inflation likely headed towards 2.5% over the next few quarters, while euro zone core inflation is stuck around 1% (Chart 2). Table 1Recommended Allocation Chart 1A Resynchronization Of Growth? Chart 2Core Inflation: Higher In The U.S. Than In The Euro Zone In particular, we think it is only a matter of time before U.S. wages start to accelerate. Unemployment has not been this low since the late 1960s. As happened then, there is typically a lag between the labor market becoming tight and inflation emerging (Chart 3). With the employment/population ratio for the key working-age demographic now back close to its 2007 level (Chart 4), and 601,000 new entrants to the labor force last month alone, that point is probably not far away. Note, too, that people switching jobs are now seeing large wage rises; those staying are not (Chart 5). With strong corporate profit growth, companies will soon start to raise wages to keep staff and fill vacancies. Chart 3Just A Matter Of Time Before Inflation Accelerates Chart 4Little Slack Left In The Labor Market Chart 5Switchers Getting Wage Rises; Stayers Not This all suggests that markets are too nonchalant about the risk of further Fed tightening. The futures market is pricing in only four rate hikes from the Fed over the next 24 months (Chart 6). We think it likely that the Fed will continue to hike by 25 basis points a quarter until something gives. By contrast, the ECB has clearly signaled that it will wait until at least September next year before raising rates; when it does so, it may hike by only 10 basis points. The futures market is close to pricing this correctly (Chart 6, panel 2). We remain concerned about further exacerbation of the retaliatory tariff war. In late July, the European Union and President Trump seemed to agree a truce, especially with regard to auto tariffs. But, even if this proves more than transitory, it is unlikely to be repeated between the U.S. and China. Both sides have raised the stakes so much that it will be politically difficult for either to back down. Further aggressive moves are likely, including a 10% tariff on all USD500 billion of Chinese imports into the U.S, and the Chinese authorities engineering a further depreciation of the Chinese yuan, and making life difficult for U.S. companies that manufacture and sell in China (where their sales total USD350 billion). Businesses around the world have woken up to this risk: capex intentions among U.S. companies have slipped recently and, in the Global ZEW survey, future expectations are now the lowest relative to current conditions since 2007, a bearish indicator (Chart 7). Chart 6Fed Is Likely To Hike more Than This Chart 7Businesses Expect Things To Get Worse Moreover, we don't see China launching a massive reflationary stimulus, as it did in 2009 and 2015. In the past few weeks, it has announced some minor easing of monetary policy, targeted tax cuts, and an acceleration of this year's fiscal spending. This will be enough to cushion the downside. But interest rates have not fallen anything like as much as in previous episodes (Chart 8). The authorities have reiterated that structural reform remains the priority. Given the significant slowdown in credit growth over the past year, we expect a further deceleration in the Chinese industrial economy (and, therefore, in imports) through the end of the year. If our macro outlook is correct, it is likely to have the following consequences for financial markets: further rises in long-term interest rates (we forecast 3.3-3.5% for the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield by early 2019), a further appreciation of the U.S. dollar (as monetary policy divergences with the euro area and Japan widen further), and negative performance for emerging market assets (hurt by higher U.S. rates, the rising USD, and the slowdown in China). This points to small negative returns from global government bonds over the next 12 months. Equities are more complicated. Earnings growth remains strong. If S&P500 companies really achieve the 20% EPS growth this year and 10% next year that analysts (and BCA's models) are forecasting, the forward multiple will fall from 16.5x now to 14.0x by end-2019. We would expect to see low single-digit positive returns from global equities over the rest of the year. We accordingly remain neutral on equities, where we can see both upside and downside risks. One key is the timing of the peak in profit margins. This has typically come a few quarters before the start of a recession. Currently margins continue to improve (Chart 9). They are likely to peak around the end of this year, when wages (and input prices, partly because of higher import tariffs) begin to rise faster than sales. We expect to move underweight equities around that time, when this and other recession indicators start to flash warning signals. Chart 8Not 2015 Redux In China Chart 9Watch For The Peak In Profit Margins Currencies: The outlook for the USD remains the key to the performance of other asset classes, particularly emerging markets and commodities. We see the risk of a short-term pullback, since long speculative positions in the dollar have recently built up (Chart 10). But differences in growth, inflation, monetary policy, and long-term rates between the U.S. and other developed economies suggest further moderate dollar appreciation over the coming 12 months. We remain very negative on EM currencies. Central banks in many emerging markets have been forced to raise rates sharply in recent weeks to defend their currencies. This is likely to slow growth over coming quarters. Those central banks that have resisted hiking (for example, Turkey and Brazil) are likely to see sharp rises in inflation. Equities: We prefer developed market equities over emerging ones. Our two overweights are the U.S. and Japan. The U.S. is a defensive market, with a beta to global equities of only 0.9 over the past 20 years. But, if there were to be a last-year equity market melt-up (along the lines of 1999), it is likely to be led by internet stocks, in which the U.S. is particularly overweight, and so the U.S. overweight also acts as a hedge against this upside risk. Our overweight in Japan is based on our view that the Bank of Japan will continue its ultra-accommodative monetary policy (bolstered by the recent tweaks to the operation of the policy), even while other DM central banks are moving towards tightening. There are also some signs of wage growth picking up, which should be positive for consumer sectors. Fixed Income: We remain underweight bonds and, within the asset class, are neutral between government bonds and spread product. U.S. junk bonds continue to have some attraction as long as economic growth remains strong (and the oil price does not fall). But junk bonds typically peak one or two quarters before equities. And, in this cycle, U.S. corporate leverage began to rise rather early, which suggests that at the start of the next recession leverage will be worryingly high (Chart 11) and that junk bonds will, therefore, perform particularly poorly. Chart 10Dollar Long Positions Building Up Again Chart 11Leverage Is High For This Stage Of The Cycle Commodities: Oil has become much harder to forecast in recent weeks, with downside risk to the price of crude coming from the recently announced OPEC production increases, but upside risk from Iran (which is threatening to close the straits of Hormuz in the face of renewed U.S. sanctions) and the collapse in Venezuelan production. BCA's energy strategists see Brent falling a little to average USD70 a barrel in 2H, and at USD75 on average next year, with greater risk of upside surprises than downside.2 Industrial metals prices are likely to remain under pressure if the USD appreciates and China slows further, as evidenced by significant downside moves in copper, iron ore and other metals over the past few weeks. Garry Evans, Senior Vice President Global Asset Allocation garry@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see Global Asset Allocation Quarterly Portfolio Review, "Lowering Risk Assets To Neutral," dated 2 July 2018, available at gaa.bcaresearch.com 2 Please see Commodity & Energy Strategy Special Report, "U.S., OPEC Talk Oil Prices Down; Gulf Tensions Could Become Kinetic," dated 19 July 2018, available at ces.bcaresearch.com GAA Asset Allocation
Highlights Editor's Note: I am pleased to return to U.S. Investment Strategy (USIS). I worked with the service when I joined BCA in 2010, and previously led it from August 2013 through September 2014. Sara Porrello, who has been with the team for over 20 years, and I look forward to re-aligning USIS with its original mandate. We hope you will find it consistently insightful. Best regards, Doug Peta U.S. Investment Strategy is getting back to basics: Today's report, plainly stating our position on the near-term direction of interest rates, is the first in an ongoing series meant to stake out our views on the macro issues that are most important to investors. Rates are headed higher, consistent with a booming economy that may well overheat, ... : Assuming trade tensions don't short-circuit the expansion, the U.S. economy is poised to grow above trend well into 2019. ...thanks to a tightening labor market and dubious fiscal spending, ... : Employers will be forced to bid up wages as the pool of idled and under-utilized workers dries up, and the fiscal stimulus package is all but certain to goose inflation pressures. ... and neither tweets nor testy interviews nor other expressions of presidential pique are likely to stay the Fed from its appointed rounds: The Federal Reserve cherishes its independence, and it is extremely unlikely to bow to presidential pressure. Feature U.S. Investment Strategy is meant to provide analyses of the U.S. economy and its future direction for the purpose of helping our clients make asset-allocation decisions. Starting with this report, we are going back to the basics of meeting that mandate. Over the rest of the summer, we intend to outline our positions on the key macro drivers of financial markets: rates, credit, the business cycle, and the state of monetary policy. Laying out our big-picture views, and the rationale underpinning them, will establish a framework for evaluating incoming data. The goal is to allow our clients to think along with us as new information is disseminated, and to distinguish signals from noise. We also want to make it easier for clients to anticipate the evolution of our views. To that end, will make frequent use of checklists highlighting the specific elements that might lead us to change our take on the evolution of the key cycles. The ultimate goal is to stay on top of cyclical inflection points, and to use them to inform asset-allocation decisions. The Fed Gets Its Way On Rates Monetary policy is a blunt instrument that works with indeterminate lags, and its effect has been roundly questioned. At the ends of the armchair-quarterback continuum, the Fed is mocked as a clueless bumbler, turning dials at random like a fumbling Mr. Magoo, or bemoaned as an omnipotent manipulator of financial markets and real-world activity. Strictly speaking, it controls nothing more than short rates. As its post-crisis communications strategy has shown, however, its reach extends well beyond its official policy-rate dominion. Talk of last decade's "conundrum" aside, changes in the fed funds rate reverberate along the entire yield curve. As the Chart Of The Week demonstrates, the aggregate yield on all outstanding Treasury issues is joined at the hip, directionally, with the fed funds rate. Aggregate weighted-average Treasury duration sits squarely in the belly of the curve, and it is a not-quite-perfect proxy for the long end, where the Fed's gravitational pull wanes (Table 1). Its pull is still powerful, though; the 90% correlation between the fed funds rate and the 30-year bond testifies eloquently to the Fed's significant influence at all points of the curve (Chart 2). Chart of the WeekThe Fed Gets Its Way The investment takeaway is that the Fed gets what it wants across the full spectrum of rates the vast majority of the time. Given the FOMC's repeatedly expressed intention to continue on its normalization course, the path of least resistance for rates at all maturities is higher. Despite the money markets' resistance to extrapolate the 25-bps-a-quarter "gradual pace" across the rest of this year and next (Chart 3), six more quarters of that pace is our baseline expectation provided an economic shock does not occur. Investors should be prepared for a higher peak in the fed funds rate than the consensus expects. Table 1Correlation With The Fed Funds##BR##Rate By Bond Maturity Chart 2The Long Arm##BR##Of The Fed Chart 3Rates Have Room To##BR##Surprise To The Upside Bottom Line: The Treasury curve faithfully reflects changes in the fed funds rate. In the absence of a shock that would cause the FOMC's repeatedly expressed plans to change, monetary policy is a catalyst for higher rates. But What About An Inverted Yield Curve? The yield curve typically inverts in the latter stages of a rate-hiking campaign, so it is more correct to say a higher fed funds rate implies higher Treasury yields until the yield curve inverts. An inverted yield curve is a classic recession indicator, albeit often a very early one (Table 2), and it should not be taken as a signal to immediately de-risk portfolios. The yield curve may be prone to invert even earlier than it otherwise would this time around, given that QE1, QE2, and QE3 may well have depressed the term premium on long-term bonds,1 as The Bank Credit Analyst noted in its August edition. The question of how much the Fed's asset purchases have affected the term premium, if at all, is far from settled within either the Fed or BCA, but its potential to impact the signal from the yield curve reinforces our conviction to look to other indicators to confirm its recession message before declaring the end of the bull markets in equities and spread product. Table 2The Yield Curve Is Early The Inflation Outlook As the tepid post-crisis expansion has stretched on and on, investors have grown accustomed to sleepy inflation readings and begun to regard the prospects for a pickup in inflation with skepticism, if not outright disdain. Even within BCA, there has been spirited debate about the relevance of the Phillips Curve - the formalization of the idea that there is an inverse relationship between wage growth and the unemployment rate. Despite the stagflation of the 1970s and the lengthy post-crisis dry spell that have undermined the Phillips Curve's credibility with the rigorously empirically-minded, we do not find it controversial. The relationship between unemployment and compensation may not be perfectly linear, but the Phillips Curve is nothing more than an extension of the laws of supply and demand to wage negotiations. We can accept that the Phillips Curve is kinked - that compensation growth is utterly indifferent to changes in the unemployment rate when labor supply is glutted (as can be seen in Chart 4 when covering all of the observations below 7%), but rather sensitive to its moves when it is in the neighborhood of full employment (as can be seen when covering all of the observations above 5%). We believe the U.S. labor market has reached the point at which employers will have to compete fiercely to attract new talent. After nine years, the economy has finally worked down nearly all of the hidden slack that had padded the broader U-6 unemployment rate.2 The pool of discouraged workers - those who are not counted as officially unemployed because they're not actively looking for a job, but would start tomorrow if offered one - has shrunk below its 2000 and 2007 levels (Chart 5, top panel). Similarly, the share of the labor force that is working part time but would prefer to be working full time is approaching its pre-crisis bottom (Chart 5, bottom panel). The prospects for inflation gained another boost last December upon the passage of the spending package on the coattails of the tax-cut bill. The U.S. economy is poised to receive a substantial dose of fiscal stimulus this year and next (Chart 6). Mainstream macroeconomic thought holds that stimulus injected into an economy that is already operating at full capacity is prone to kindle inflation.3 Chart 4The Phillips Curve Can't Handle Copious Slack ... Chart 5... But Almost All Of It Has Been Worked Off Chart 6Goosing Inflation Along With Output Bottom Line: The U.S. labor market has tightened considerably and competition between employers to attract scarce talent should soon translate to a pickup in wage growth. Unneeded fiscal stimulus is also likely to push prices higher. There are plenty more inflation green shoots behind the ones that have already begun to emerge. White House-Fed Tension Is Nothing New It is not beyond the realm of possibility that presidential pressure could deter the Fed from following through on its intentions and present a risk to our above-consensus terminal rate estimate. The bond market immediately discounted the potential of a less independent Fed by selling off at the long end after the president stated he was "not thrilled" with ongoing rate hikes in an interview with CNBC. There would seem to be little doubt that a captive Fed would be more reluctant to remove the punch bowl than a Fed which was free to pursue its inflation mandate without outside interference. After all, elected officials would be happy to trade long-term pain for near-term gain (at least through the next campaign). The president may have upended convention by publicly airing his displeasure, but there is a natural tension between the White House and the Fed. There have been dust-ups in the past, and there will be dust-ups in the future for as long as elected officials shudder at the thought of an economic downturn. Alan Greenspan wrote frankly in his memoir about friction with the first Bush administration, which included public criticism from the sitting president. "I do not want to see us move so strongly against inflation that we impede growth," President Bush told the press at the beginning of his term, in response to hawkish congressional testimony from Greenspan.4 By all accounts, however, the conflict between Bush père and Greenspan was of a lower-pressure variety than the conflicts between LBJ and William McChesney Martin, and Nixon and Arthur Burns. The legendarily intimidating LBJ summoned Martin to his ranch following an unwelcome rate hike. According to several accounts (and consistent with his longstanding negotiating practices in the Senate), LBJ backed the smaller Martin up against a wall before giving full voice to his complaints. Martin did not budge, pointing out that the Fed had acted in accordance with the legislation governing its actions.5 If Martin represents the heroic Fed chief, standing his ground in the face of heavy pressure from a larger-than-life figure, Arthur Burns is the poster child for folding like a cheap lawn chair. The Nixon tapes capture Nixon and his proxies repeatedly pressuring Burns to prime the pump ahead of the 1972 election, which Burns ultimately did.6 Our view is that Fed Chair Powell is more likely to follow Martin than Burns. The Fed is more transparent today, and its independence is more firmly established than it was in the 1970s. Even if Powell were amenable to doing the president's bidding, he would be held back by the realization that it would ultimately be self-defeating: any hint of political manipulation in the rate-setting process would risk a bond market riot that would blast rates far beyond the levels where a 3.5% fed funds rate would take them. Bottom Line: We are not concerned that the FOMC will yield to pressure from the White House to back away from their rate hike plans. Attempted influence of the Fed is nothing new, and investors need not worry about it now. Investment Implications If we are correct in our view that rates have not yet peaked, the bond market is likely to face continued headwinds. Long-dated Treasuries will come under more pressure than shorter-maturity issues. Thanks to positive carry, spread product will be less vulnerable to higher rates, but our bond strategists are lukewarm on the risk-reward offered by investment-grade and high-yield bonds given the late stage of the cycle and historically tight spreads. We acknowledge the potential seriousness of the current spate of geopolitical risks, headlined by trade tensions, and advocate temporarily de-risking portfolios in line with the BCA house view (equal weight equities, underweight bonds, overweight cash). We are more constructive than the BCA consensus, however, because we remain constructive on the business cycle, the monetary policy cycle, and the credit cycle. If the key cycles aren't over, the equity bull market probably isn't over, and neither spread widening nor a pickup in defaults is likely to wipe out spread product's excess returns. We will express all of our calls in a basket of ETF recommendations once we have completed our review of the most impactful macro questions, but for now we recommend maintaining below-benchmark positioning in Treasury portfolios while overweighting TIPS at the expense of nominal Treasuries. Doug Peta, Senior Vice President U.S. Investment Strategy dougp@bcaresearch.com 1 Long-term bond yields can be decomposed into the expected path of short-term rates and a term premium, which compensates an investor for the uncertainties that can arise over the extended time period that s/he is locking up his/her money by buying a longer-maturity instrument. 2 In the monthly employment report, the headline unemployment rate, which includes only jobless workers who are actively seeking work, is labeled U-3 unemployment. The U-6 series broadens the definition of unemployment to include the jobless who aren't actively searching and those who are working part time only because they cannot find a full-time position. 3 Please see the November 7, 2016 U.S. Investment Strategy Weekly Report, "Policy, Polls, Probability," available at usis.bcaresearch.com, for a discussion of fiscal multipliers under a range of scenarios. 4 Greenspan, Alan. The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World, Penguin (New York): 2007, p.113. To this day, several members of the G.H.W. Bush administration continue to pin a large measure of blame for its 1992 electoral loss on overly conservative monetary policy. The ex-president himself, in a 1998 television interview, said, "I reappointed him [Greenspan], and he disappointed me." 5 Granville, Kevin. "A President at War With His Fed Chief, 5 Decades Before Trump," New York Times, June 15, 2017, page B3 (updated July 19, 2018). https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/13/business/economy/a-president-at-war-with-his-fed-chief-5-decades-before-trump.html 6 "How Richard Nixon Pressured Arthur Burns: Evidence from the Nixon Tapes, Vol. 20, No. 4," Journal of Economic Perspectives (Fall 2006). https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1167/item/2388, accessed on July 24, 2018.
Highlights A flurry of policy announcements over the past month has given investors the impression that Beijing has turned the policy dial in the direction of supporting growth. We agree that China is easing at the margin, but several observations suggest that the stimulus proposed so far falls short of a "big bang" response that would reverse both the looming export shock as well as the underlying slowdown in China's old economy. Investors should remain neutrally positioned towards Chinese stocks within a global equity portfolio, and should favor low-beta sectors within the Chinese investable universe. Feature There have been several policy-related announcements over the past month in China. This has led many market participants to question whether China is in the process of entering full-blown stimulus mode, and if we are on the cusp of another upswing in Chinese economic activity. Our answer to both questions is, for now, no. China appears to merely be easing off the brake, rather than pressing hard on the accelerator. Given that export growth will certainly slow to some degree due to the imposition of import tariffs, and that an industrial sector slowdown was already underway in China prior to President Trump's protectionist actions, it is far from clear that any stimulus will be a net positive for the country's "old economy". In other words, stimulus may counteract an upcoming export shock, but we would need to see more evidence before concluding that it will lead to a renewed cyclical uptrend in China's economy. A Flurry Of Policy Announcements... Several policy actions, announcements, and signals have occurred over the past month: The RMB has fallen nearly 6% since mid-June, which we have argued has been at least partially policy-driven. As we highlighted in our June 27 report,1 the decline in CNY/USD has been large, has occurred very rapidly, and cannot be explained by its previous relationship with the U.S. dollar (Chart 1). The PBOC cut its reserve requirement ratio for both big and small banks at the end of June, following the cut in April (Chart 2). It also provided incentives for banks to buy speculative-rated corporate bonds, clarified that its new asset management rules would permit mutual funds to invest in non-standard assets, and recently injected 500 billion RMB of liquidity into the banking system via its medium-term lending facility (MLF). Chart 1An Enormous, At Least Partially Policy-Driven Move Chart 2A Second Cut To Bank Reserve Requirement Ratios The Ministry of Finance (MOF) signaled that it would speed up spending that was planned to occur later in the year, and the State Council signaled that it would accelerate the issuance of 1.4 trillion RMB in local government bonds to support infrastructure investment. It also green-lighted a comparatively small 6.5 billion RMB in tax cuts for corporate R&D. China's legislature released a draft version of proposed tax changes that would cut the rate paid for individuals. The flurry of policy announcements over the past month has given investors the impression that Beijing has turned the policy dial in the direction of supporting growth. We agree that China is easing at the margin, and that these policy announcements are important: without them, the Chinese economy would likely face a substantial deceleration that would risk a serious slowdown in global growth. ...That Will Not Cause A Material Re-Acceleration In The Economy But several observations suggest that the stimulus proposed so far falls short of a "big bang" response that would reverse both the looming export shock as well as the underlying slowdown in China's old economy: Fiscal Stimulus: Chart 3 shows that China's on-budget deficit expanded by 3 percentage points over an 18-month period from 2014 to 2016. An equivalent expansion today would imply a 2.6 trillion RMB rise in the budget deficit, meaning that the local government bond issuance announced on Monday is 40% smaller than the deficit expansion that occurred from 2014 to 2016. If the infrastructure projects financed by these bonds turn out to be multi-year initiatives tied to China's structural reform plans, the intensity of this round of fiscal stimulus will likely turn out to be less than half, or even a fraction, of what occurred previously. Fiscal Vs. Credit Expansion: While an increase in fiscal spending was important in catalyzing an economic recovery in 2014/2016, Chart 4 highlights that the expansion of credit was considerably larger. The chart shows on-budget fiscal spending and the change in adjusted total social financing (TSF) as a percent of GDP, and highlights that the latter dwarfs the former. By our calculations, adjusted TSF accelerated by 5 trillion RMB from 2015 to 2016, which from our perspective could only have been achieved by very aggressive monetary easing. Currency Depreciation: A simple framework that equates the equilibrium/required currency depreciation to the size of the tariffs imposed as a share of total exports to the U.S. suggests that a 6% decline in CNY/USD may be adequate at negating an export shock if the proposed tariffs stop after the recently proposed new round of 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods. But first, this approach suggests that a further 6-7% decline may be needed if President Trump follows through with his threat to impose tariffs on all imports from China. Second, in either case the currency decline merely addresses the prospective export shock, not the underlying slowdown in China's old economy that has been occurring over the past year. Chart 3Bond-Financed Infrastructure Spending Unlikely To Match 2015's Fiscal Expansion Chart 4Three Years Ago, The Expansion In Credit Dwarfed That Of Fiscal Spending From our perspective, China's monetary policy actions have so far been the most convincingly stimulative developments in response to the threat to exports. We downplayed China's most recent reserve requirement ratio cut in our June 27 Weekly Report,1 and we acknowledge that this initial assessment was overly pessimistic. Chart 5 shows that the 3-month repo rate, China's de-facto policy rate, has broken meaningfully below the lower band that had prevailed since the beginning of 2017. This suggests that the targeted addition of liquidity, particularly to China's small banks, was at least somewhat effective at easing financial conditions. Chart 5The PBOC Has Successfully Lowered The 3-Month Repo Rate... Chart 6...But This Is Unlikely to Significantly Drop Average Lending Rates Still, we remain unconvinced that what has been announced so far is likely to generate an acceleration in credit growth even approaching what occurred three years ago. Chart 6 shows the weighted average lending rate in China, alongside a simple regression model for the rate based on the benchmark lending rate and the 3-month interbank repo rate (China's "old" and "de-facto new" policy rates, respectively). The chart highlights the likely minimal impact of the recent decline in the repo rate on the average lending rate. In fact, Chart 6 underscores an important point about China's stimulus in 2014-2016: a good portion of that episode's reflationary impact appears to have been caused by the PBOC's 170 bps cut to its benchmark lending rate, which has so far remained unchanged (without any hint from policymakers that it might be lowered). Finally, we are similarly underwhelmed by the PBOC's incentives to banks to buy "junk" corporate bonds: debt securities are a small (albeit fast growing) portion of China's total nonfinancial credit, and junk-rated bonds are a small fraction of that market. We thus see this announcement as an attempt to provide some marginal liquidity support for issuers of these bonds that have upcoming refinancing requirements, rather than a policy of any true macro significance. Conclusions And Investment Strategy Recommendations Two important insights emerge from our above analysis. The first is that the intensity and timing of the infrastructure projects alluded to by the State Council are important factors in determining the likely impact of increased government spending. We suspect that any boost to the economy over the coming year from infrastructure spending will be relatively small, but this will be an important element to monitor over the coming months. The second insight is that we would become considerably more constructive towards China's economy were the PBOC to cut its benchmark lending rate. This would be clear sign that the China is pressing on the accelerator, rather than attempting to simply "fine tune" the economy in the face of an external economic shock. For now, however, our view is that the stimulative measures that have been announced are not likely to lead to a renewed cyclical uptrend in China's economy. This implies that investors should remain neutrally positioned towards Chinese stocks within a global equity portfolio, and should favor low-beta sectors within the Chinese investable universe. Chart 7 shows that the latter position, which we initiated on June 27, has risen almost 1% in relative terms over the past month, and we expect further gains over the remainder of the year. Finally, we noted in our July 5 Weekly Report that the selloff in Chinese domestic stocks was advanced,2 and that we would consider implementing a long MSCI China A Onshore index / short MSCI China index trade in response to a 5% rally in relative common currency performance. It is conceivable that "easing off the brake" will be enough for A-shares to rally non-trivially relative to investable stocks, given how much they have fallen since the beginning of the year. Chart 8 shows that A-shares have approached this threshold in response to recent stimulus announcements, but have yet to break through. We will be watching relative A-share performance closely over the coming weeks for a green light to initiate the position. Stay tuned! Chart 7Low-Beta Sectors Are Outperforming China's Investable Market Chart 8Conditions May Soon Warrant A Pair Trade Favoring Domestic Stocks Jonathan LaBerge, CFA, Vice President Special Reports jonathanl@bcaresearch.com 1 Pease see China Investment Strategy Weekly Report "Now What?", dated June 27, 2018, available at cis.bcaresearch.com 2 Pease see China Investment Strategy Weekly Report "Standing On One Leg", dated July 5, 2018, available at cis.bcaresearch.com Cyclical Investment Stance Equity Sector Recommendations
Highlights Chart of the WeekTrade Fears Weighing On Ag Complex Bearish sentiment in ag markets is overdone. We believe prices have bottomed. But we are not yet ready to get bullish, given the elevated trade-policy uncertainty dominating markets at present. The evolution of grains and bean prices from here will depend on whether ongoing trade disputes between the U.S. and some of its largest ag markets are transitory or permanent (Chart of the Week). Highlights Energy: Overweight. We closed our Dec18 Brent $65 vs. $70/bbl call spread last week with a net gain of 80%. We remain long call spreads along the Brent forward curve in 2019, which are down an average 2.7%, and the SP GSCI, which is up 12.1%. Base Metals: Neutral. Aluminum prices are down ~ 1.6% in the past week, following indications from U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sanctions against Russian aluminum supplier Rusal could be removed. Precious Metals: Neutral. Gold prices recovered slightly over the past week, but remain under pressure, given continued strength in the broad trade-weighted USD and real U.S. interest rates. We remain long gold as a portfolio hedge, nonetheless. Ags/Softs: Underweight. Fundamentals support higher grain and bean prices. However, trade-policy uncertainty - particularly re Sino - U.S. relations - will keep them under pressure (see below). Feature Weather-related uncertainty typically is center stage when it comes to forecasting ag prices during the growing season. This year, trade-policy uncertainty emanating from Washington will contend with weather risk as the dominant influence on prices. We do not expect ag-related trade policies to become more hostile. This means the path of ag prices will be contingent on whether the current trade disputes - primarily between the U.S. and China - are transient or permanent features of international trade. Given what we've seen already, we can expect American farmers will fare poorly in the ongoing trade spats. U.S. agricultural exports have been disproportionately hard hit by tariffs from their most important foreign consumer markets, levied in retaliation against U.S. tariffs (Chart 2). BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy analysts assign a high probability to the escalation of current tensions into a full-blown trade war.1 Nevertheless, we believe the negative sentiment in ag markets is overdone, and that there is not much further downside from here. It is unsurprising that agriculture is a natural first target in this trade dispute. More than a quarter of U.S. crops are exported, with the share rising above 50% in many cases (Chart 3). This provides foreign consumers with ammunition in the dispute. Furthermore, these exports account for a large chunk of global ag trade, in some cases making American exports price makers in the global market. Importantly, many farmers and farm-belt voters cast ballots for Donald Trump. Chart 2American Ags Hit Hard##BR##By Trade Barriers... Chart 3...Because They Are Exposed##BR##To Foreign Markets The USDA's plans announced earlier this week to spend as much as $12 billion between September and end of harvest to help soften the impact of tariff retaliations against U.S. farm states loyal to Trump are not unexpected. The measures will entail (1) direct payments to soybean, sorghum, cotton, corn, wheat, dairy and pork farmers, (2) the procurement and subsequent re-distribution of ag products to nutrition programs, and (3) working with the private sector to promote trade and develop new export markets.2 Trade Spats Hit Grain Markets Hard Grain markets have been especially hard hit in the cross-fire between the U.S. and some of its key trade partners (Table 1). China's retaliatory tariffs are especially consequential, due to its outsized role as a main ag demand market. Table 1Ags Caught In The Crossfire All in all, the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Grains & Oilseeds Index is down ~ 10% since end-May on the back of these tariffs. Soybeans lead the decline with a 17% loss. We have been foreshadowing this since the beginning of the year.3 Now that it's played out consistent with our previous expectations, it leaves us wondering "now what?" We see three potential scenarios unfolding in the ongoing trade skirmish: Scenario 1: The current tariffs remain in place with no significant increase in ag-relevant trade barriers.4 Scenario 2: The disputes peak soon, and de-escalate. In this scenario, tariffs imposed since the beginning of the year are reversed, ultimately leading to a free and now-fairer global trade order. Scenario 3: A complete breakdown in global trade. This scenario can take on a soft outcome whereby tariffs are increased, or to a more aggressive scenario, resulting in a seismic collapse in world trade agreements. The first two scenarios are clearly more optimistic. In Scenario 1, near-term downside to prices would be restrained, contingent on the responses of major ag consumers. We discuss their four main options and potential courses of action below. Scenario 2 is the most bullish, with price formation once again a function of supply-demand-inventory fundamentals. In this scenario, exogenous risks primarily stem from weather and U.S. financial variables. However, Scenario 3, in which a prolonged trade war pushes the global economy into a recession, would intensify the pain. This would lead to a contraction in the global flow of goods and services, reducing access to foreign markets. Additionally, it would hurt ag demand through the income channel. Consumption growth of ags is correlated with income growth. If the trade war bears down on incomes, it will reduce per-capita demand for ag commodities, which ultimately depresses prices. This is especially true in the case of lower income and emerging economies, where demand is more elastic. Impact Of Tariffs In face of higher costs brought on by U.S. tariffs, foreign buyers are essentially faced with four options: Reduce imports from the U.S., and opt to purchase more from other major producers; Reduce consumption of particular crops by substituting with others; Consume out of inventory, or Continue purchasing U.S. crops, but at a higher price. Chart 4Soybean Farmers Are Most Vulnerable Given the heightened risks surrounding the Sino-American trade dispute, we analyze these possibilities with reference to China. In addition, since soybeans are the most vulnerable of the crops hit by the trade dispute, we focus on beans, arguing that in most cases similar courses of action can be taken for other crops (Chart 4). Chinese authorities have already communicated that they plan to use options 1 - 3, and, as such, have assessed the impact of these restrictions on Chinese buyers to be minimal. Furthermore, according to a comment earlier this month by Lu Xiaodong, deputy general manager of state stockpile Sinograin, China is capable of fully meeting its needs without importing soybeans from the U.S.5 The extent to which buyers are successful in doing so will ultimately determine the overall impact of the trade dispute on U.S. ag markets. We expect China's solution will be a mélange of these four options. Below we assess these possibilities. Option 1: Chinese Buyers Are Turning To Other Major Producers An oft-noted change in Chinese purchasing behavior in reference to U.S. soybeans has been cited as the rationale for the negative sentiment towards U.S. ags. While it is true that Chinese buyers have been shunning American beans, the conclusion fails to recognize a few key points (Chart 5). Chart 5U.S. Soybean Exports Down On Weak Sales To China First, due to the difference in crop calendars - South American beans are harvested in spring while the U.S. crop is harvested in the fall - there is a clear seasonal pattern in China's purchasing behavior (Chart 6). Thus, greater Chinese imports of Brazilian soybeans are typical for this time of year. In addition, agricultural commodities are fungible, which means a reduction of China's imports of U.S. crops does not mean the U.S. crops will go to waste. While American crops are clearly trading at a disadvantage from the perspective of a Chinese buyer, there are still other foreign markets open to American ag exports. Now that these crops are selling at a discount, they have become much more competitive, incentivizing a shift in trade flows. This has already started - the U.S. has increased exports to consumers such as Egypt and Mexico, and even found soybeans buyers in Argentina and Brazil, both major producers of soybeans (Chart 7)! Chart 6Seasonality Is Partly To Blame Chart 7New Markets Opening Up For American Beans Option 2: China Will Adjust Its Feed Recipe China's decision to remove import tariffs on animal feed ingredients from Asian suppliers also highlights another policy route. To the extent possible, Chinese consumers will attempt to find substitutes for the now-more-costly U.S. imports. This includes supplies from alternative producers, and imports of substitute products. The potential from this option depends on the availability of close substitutes to replace ags exports affected by the Sino - U.S. trade dispute. In the case of soybeans, Chinese bean imports are crushed to produce meal and oil. The former is then used as a primary protein in livestock feed, while the latter is refined to be used in foods. Similarly, the majority of corn is also used as a critical ingredient in animal feed. As such, in face of higher costs, bean crushers will likely turn to meal from other protein substitutes such as rapeseed, peanuts and sunflower seeds. Nevertheless, soybean meal remains the optimal source of protein for livestock. Thus, while China will attempt to reduce its consumption of the tariff-laden U.S. ags, alternatives are not perfect substitutes. Consequently, this option does not completely eliminate the need for soybean imports. Option 3: Eat Into Ag Inventories Chart 8Chinese Stocks Will - Partially -##BR##Cushion The Blow Chinese ag inventories are relatively high and can cushion the blow to supply, at least temporarily (Chart 8). This means we may see a decline in Chinese stocks, on the back of drawdowns to fill in the gap left by lower imports from the U.S. While Beijing's stocks are notoriously large, there are reports that, in some cases, they are of low quality, and are unfit for human and animal consumption. Thus, this policy may appear more feasible on paper than in reality. Without accurate information regarding the size and quality of China's ag inventories, it is impossible to determine the potential of this option. Option 4: Absorb the Price Hike: Continue Importing - Now Pricier - U.S. Ags Chinese buyers likely will attempt to exhaust options 1 - 3 above, before resorting to purchasing now-pricier U.S. grains and beans. Nevertheless, it is inevitable - some U.S. ags will continue to flow to China. The relevant question - admittedly extremely difficult to quantify - is with regards to the magnitude of the impact. This essentially will depend on China's ability to use options 1 - 3, to avoid the now-higher import costs. While in the case of soybeans, U.S. exports have been shunned for now, the true test will come in the fall after the Brazilian harvest is over, and the market is flooded with the American crops. Furthermore, the 25% increase in costs due to the tariffs will, to some extent, be offset by the discount in the price of the American crops. Fundamentals Imply Higher Ag Prices While ag markets have taken several direct hits recently, we believe global fundamentals are not as bearish as current pricing conditions suggest. In the event there is a de-escalation of trade disputes - Scenario 2 above - prices will rebound to levels implied by fundamentals. While soybeans are expected to record a small surplus in the 2018 - 19 crop year, wheat and corn will be in a global deficit (Chart 9). Furthermore, global inventories - measured in stocks-to-use terms - are expected to come down. In the case of corn and soybeans, this will be the second consecutive annual decline (Chart 10). Chart 9Bullish Fundamentals On Back##BR##Of Corn And Wheat Deficits... Chart 10...And Falling##BR##Inventories In the corn market, the inventory drawdown is , to a large extent, driven by Chinese policy which is incentivizing the consumption of stocks by offering lower subsidies to corn farmers vs. soybeans, and through measures to encourage corn use for ethanol. This is expected to bring stocks down to levels last witnessed in the 1960s! On the other hand, U.S. soybean stocks are expected to continue increasing in line with lower demand for American beans by the world's largest soybean consumer (China). As always, weather is the biggest source of near term supply-side uncertainty. Wheat prices are supported by weather concerns in Europe - particularly the Black Sea region - which is damaging crops there. This is especially important given the expectation of a smaller crop there this year. Some Final Notes A couple of distinctions within the ags space reveals some ags are more vulnerable to the ongoing dispute than others. These are the number of sellers and the number of buyers in these markets. For instance, U.S. soybean exports have fewer foreign markets than corn, making them relatively more susceptible to downward price movements as supplies back up and are forced to find alternative markets. This is especially true since China is the single largest consumer of soybeans (Chart 11). Chart 11Global Wheat Market Relatively Insulated From Trade Frictions On the other hand, the global wheat market resembles a perfectly competitive market. This means that there are many buyers and sellers, each with limited ability to influence prices. Given that both the U.S. and China are price takers in this market, wheat prices will be relatively more insulated from trade headwinds. As such, we favor wheat in the current environment. Bottom Line: American farmers will be the losers in the still-evolving Sino - American trade disputes, as barriers are imposed on their exports, rendering them uncompetitive for their most significant foreign consumer. However, this will open markets for other global producers - most notably Brazil, Argentina, and the Black Sea region - making farmers there the winners in this dispute. Roukaya Ibrahim, Editor/Strategist Commodity & Energy Strategy RoukayaI@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy Special Report titled "The U.S. And China: Sizing Up The Crisis," dated July 11, 2018, available at gps.bcaresearch.com. 2 Please see "Factbox: USDA's $12 billion farmer relief package," dated July 24, 2018, available at reuters.com. 3 Please see BCA Research's Commodity & Energy Strategy Weekly Reports titled "Ags Could Get Caught In U.S. Tariff Imbroglio," dated March 15, 2018, page 9 from "Oil Price Forecast Steady, But Risks Expand," dated March 22, 2018, and "Ag Price Volatility Will Pick Up," dated May 3, 2018. 4 Our colleagues at BCA's Geopolitical Strategy team expect the trade dispute to intensify, especially before the mid-terms. However, tariffs already have been placed on most ag commodities we follow. This leaves little room for further risk from this direct channel, unless tariff rates are increased. 5 Please see "China does not need U.S. soybeans for state reserves: Sinograin official," dated June 12, 2018, available at reuters.com. Investment Views and Themes Recommendations Strategic Recommendations Tactical Trades Commodity Prices and Plays Reference Table Trades Closed in 2018 Summary of Trades Closed in 2017
