Developed Countries
Euro area small-cap stocks are attractively valued compared to their large-cap counterparts. They have underperformed by 20% since April 2022, but small caps’ earnings have kept pace with those of large-cap firms. Hence, valuation indicators, including…
Banks were thrust back in the spotlight’s unflattering glare last week when mid-cap regional New York Community Bank shocked analysts and shareholders with an enormous credit loss. According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, NYCB is sui…
German factory orders delivered a positive surprise on Tuesday, unexpectedly increasing on both a monthly and annual basis. The 8.9% m/m increase in December came in well above consensus estimates of a 0.2% m/m decline. This translated to a 2.7% y/y rise,…
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday. The updated economic forecasts show a downward revision to the growth outlook for this year versus the previous round of projections released in November. The RBA…
Although our base case remains that a continuation of the disinflation process will allow policymakers to pivot to rate cuts this year, we continue to monitor risks to this outlook. On this front, some key indicators have recently moved in the wrong…
We do not believe that NYCB is a canary in the coal mine for a new round of bank distress. The MidCap 400 Regional Bank Index’s subsequent 10% decline looks to us like a juicy opportunity for stockpickers who can separate the wheat from the chaff. Our Special Report is meant to assist them with their initial winnowing.
The US Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) continues to show the impact of the Fed’s tightening cycle. Banks were still tightening lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I), commercial real estate (CRE), home equity lines of…
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ views on tech stocks, the US economy in 2024, and China’s contribution to global growth. Regarding tech stocks, 44% of respondents believe the rally as warranted…
Treasury yields continued to push higher on Monday, bringing the total increase over the past two trading days to 29bps. The move comes on the back of strong economic data releases indicating that conditions in the US are resilient. Notably, Friday’s…