Consumer
Is the BoE making a mistake moving toward rate cuts before the end of the summer? What would such a move mean for UK asset prices?
Today’s report recaps last week’s webcast and elaborates on its themes, delving into the empirical evidence underpinning our conviction that asset allocators should underweight equities sparingly and fleetingly. We remain tactically neutral and cyclically bearish.
US retail sales were mostly unchanged, growing by a mere 0.1% m/m in May, short of the expected 0.3% monthly increase. A 2.2% m/m decline in gasoline stations’ sales weighed on the overall result, though retail sales excluding autos and gas disappointed by an…
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate at 4.35% at its policy meeting on Tuesday, in line with market expectations. Australia’s monthly measure of headline inflation came in at 3.6% in April, still considerably above the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3%…
Chinese retail sales grew 3.7% y/y in May, from 2.3% in April, upending expectations of a more muted 3.0% increase. The government appliance trade-in program has likely boosted these figures. Sales of home-related goods such as communication appliances,…
Housing is the most interest-rate-sensitive sector of the economy. Yet, the very aggressive monetary tightening cycle has only had a muted effect on home prices. While recent housing market data have been mixed, prices have not tumbled. Indeed, a tight…
Declines in Chinese new and used home prices accelerated in May to 0.71% m/m and 1.00% m/m respectively, and the contraction in residential investment deepened to 10.1% YTD y/y. These figures come on the heels of relaxed purchase and mortgage rules, as well…
In this insight, we update our thinking on the recent BoJ move in terms of positioning for the yen and JGB yields.
The preliminary University of Michigan gauge of consumer sentiment unexpectedly dropped in June to 65.6 from 69.1, against expectations of improving morale. Consumers’ assessments of current conditions declined by a larger margin than expectations for the…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, aggressive fiscal stimulus and labor market flexibility contributed to the relative strength of the US consumer. However, adverse region-specific effects also played a role. Most notably, the…