Essentials Monthly Report

Hormuz, Europe, Japan And The Fed Sphinx

Doug Peta, Head of Essentials Roukaya Ibrahim, Chief Strategist Artem Sakhbiev, FX Strategist Matt Gertken, Head of GeoMacro

Bank Credit Analyst Europe Japan

Published on

30 Jul 2026

Section I outlines BCA’s views on the US-Iran conflict, Europe’s near-term outlook, the currency and bond selloffs in Japan and the early days of the Warsh Fed. In Section II, Roukaya, Matt, and Artem argue that the worst of gold's downturn is likely behind us. Real rates and the dollar — which have reasserted themselves as gold's primary drivers — are set to shift from headwinds to tailwinds for the metal.

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