FICC

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2024.

Special Report

Turn negative on European credit. At current levels, spreads do not compensate for the risk of a recession materializing later this year or in early 2025.

This Insight looks at potential dollar moves in the next six-to-twelve months.

Oil prices failed to hold onto their recent rebound. They slid on Tuesday as demand con-cerns resurfaced. This dynamic is the latest iteration of a tug-of-war that has kept oil prices in a trading range since H2 2023. Bearish demand concerns are enforcing an upper limit on the price of crude while bullish supply risks are maintaining a floor.

Special Report

In this Special Report, we assess the impact of monetary policy tightening on major economies. Interest rate sensitive GDP already slowed significantly in response to the aggressive rate hiking cycle. Despite the beginning of policy easing, our forward-looking indicators suggest monetary policy will continue to weigh on the economy.

Special Report

The US fiscal outlook is more unappetizing than it was before the pandemic, but we are not convinced that a difficult day of reckoning awaits. A Treasury market crisis is conceivable, but it is far from inevitable.

Oil prices are caught in a tug-of-war. Concerns about the demand outlook are acting as a price ceiling while the risk of a geopolitically induced supply shock is providing a floor. Prices are likely to remain rangebound over the near term. Yet the path of least resistance over a 6-to-12-month horizon is to the downside.

What do the mixed signals sent by the UK economy mean for the Bank of England, and what are the implications for Gilts and the British pound?

Special Report

In this report, we gauge the reasons behind the persistently weak Norwegian krone, despite what appears to be benign domestic economic conditions.

In this monthly review, we give our take on where bond yields and the dollar are headed. This is within the lens of revisiting our fundamental indicators.