Executive Summary Hopes of an imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will be dashed. The conflict will worsen over the coming days. As was the case during the original Cold War, both sides will eventually forge an…

Dear client, In addition to this weekly report, we sent you a Special Report from our Geopolitical Strategy service, highlighting the risk from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Kind regards, Chester Executive Summary The Ukraine…

Highlights The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a geopolitical incident that is likely to be limited in scope. A wholesale energy cutoff to Europe is the chief risk to global economic activity, but the sanction response from the US and EU…

Special Report

Executive Summary From Nixon-Mao To Putin-Xi  The geopolitical “big picture” of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the deepening of the Russo-Chinese strategic partnership. While Russia’s economic and…

Special Report

Executive Summary EU-Russia Energy Trade To Persist  Russia invaded Ukraine to prevent it from becoming a defense partner of the US and its allies. It is not likely to attack NATO members, which share a mutual defense treaty…

Executive Summary Russian Invasion Scenarios And Likely Equity Impact  The Ukraine crisis is escalating as predicted. We maintain our odds: 65% limited incursion, 10% full-scale invasion, 25% diplomatic de-escalation.…

HighlightsUpgrade odds of Russia invading Ukraine from 50% to 75%. The US and allies are transferring arms to Ukraine while seeking alternate energy supply for Europe.Of the 75% war risk, we give 10% odds to Russia conquering all of…

Highlights Our top five “black swan” risks for 2022: Social unrest in China; Russian invasion of all of Ukraine; unilateral Israeli strikes on Iran; a cyber attack that goes kinetic; and a failure of OPEC 2.0. Too early…

Highlights Our three strategic themes over the long run: (1) great power rivalry (2) hypo-globalization (3) populism and nationalism. The implications are inflationary over the long run. Nations that gear up for potential conflict and…

Highlights A partial reinvasion of Ukraine cannot be ruled out. The constraints on Russia are not prohibitive, especially amid global energy shortages. On this issue, it is better to be alarmist than complacent. We would put the risk…