Valuations
Highlights Portfolio Strategy We are introducing a structurally constructive US equity market view with an SPX 7000 target for year 2028 on the back of peak cycle EPS of $310 and peak cycle P/E multiple of 23. The reopening of the global economy is…
Highlights Chart 1Permanent Job Losses Still Rising
Permanent Job Losses Still Rising…
Highlights ‘Value’ sector profits are in terminal decline. Bank profits are in terminal decline, because private sector credit is now ‘maxed out’, and the intermediation between borrowers and savers can be done more cost-effectively by the blockchain.…
The frenetic rise in the forward multiple explains all of the SPX’s return year-to-date and then some as 12-month forward EPS have taken a beating. Equities are long duration assets and given the drubbing in the discount rate, the forward P/E multiple has…
Dear Client, I will be on vacation next week. Instead of our regular report, we will be sending you a Special Report from my colleague Jonathan LaBerge. Jonathan will explore the risks posed to commercial real estate and the banking system from work-from-…
The Fed’s minutes earlier this week served as a catalyst for a mini pullback in equities, as the US dollar caught a bid. Unemployment insurance claims above the million mark added insult to injury and the odds are rising that this mini-risk off phase morphs…
Highlights Global Credit Spreads: The relentless rally in global credit markets since the rout in February and March has driven corporate spreads to near pre-pandemic lows in the US, Europe and even emerging markets. Central bank liquidity is dominating…
Highlights The strong rally in certain mega-cap stocks has masked the muted revival in the broad equity universe. Limited fiscal stimulus and a broken monetary transmission mechanism herald lackluster economic and profit recoveries. While dedicated EM…
Highlights Scarce Yield: The correlation of relative global government bond returns and yield levels is becoming more positive. The trend should continue if central bankers across the developed world stick to their promises to maintain very loose monetary…
Highlights Chart 1How Much Lower For Real Yields?
How Much Lower For Real Yields…