US Dollar

Highlights China’s primary vulnerabilities over the past decade have been, and remain, credit/money excesses and a misallocation of capital. China’s advantage has not been its banking system or monetary policy’s "magic touch," but its ability to continuously raise productivity at a solid rate…

Highlights A rise in global bond yields has rarely been a reliable precursor of a stronger dollar. This is because the dollar reacts to interest-rate differentials, rather than the level of global yields. Changes in the dollar correlate with both the level and the rate of change in relative…

Highlights US inflation is set to increase sharply over the coming months as base effects kick in. Higher fuel prices, fiscal stimulus, and the partial relaxation of lockdown measures should also boost inflation. The Fed is unlikely to react hawkishly to higher inflation, arguing that it is…

Highlights US inflation expectations will continue to grind higher as commodity markets tighten, and financial markets price to an ultra-accommodative Fed over the next 2-3 years. The US stock-market rally is reducing equity yields and squeezing equity risk premiums, which acts as a drag on…

Highlights Pandemic uncertainty is keeping the USD well bid by raising global economic policy uncertainty. When this breaks – i.e., as higher vaccination rates push contagion rates down – the USD will resume its bear market. Renewable-energy output surpassed fossil-fuel generation in Europe…

Highlights Pandemic uncertainty and global economic policy uncertainty likely will rebound with increasing COVID-19 infection, hospitalization and death rates, which will keep the USD well bid as a safe haven, and continue to stymie the near-term revival of oil demand globally (Chart of the…

Dear client, In lieu of our regular report next Friday, we will be sending you a special report on Australia next Tuesday, co-authored with our Global Fixed Income colleagues. We hope you will find the report insightful. Kind regards, Chester   Highlights Any tactical bounce in the…

Highlights US Reflation: The Georgia senate victories for the Democratic Party have returned the bond-bearish “Blue Sweep” scenarios to the forefront. More fiscal stimulus and an easy Fed will extend the policy-driven reflation of the US economy and financial markets. US Treasury Strategy:…

Highlights A blue wave will likely supercharge the dollar’s downtrend in 2021. The key beneficiaries of this decline will be the much undervalued Scandinavian currencies, as well as those of commodity-producing countries. The initial knee-jerk reaction from the dollar could be positive as…