Highlights Global liquidity conditions are set to tighten in the months ahead. This could add some fire to a dollar rally, especially against EM and commodity currencies. The GBP has become the new anti-dollar, reflected by its…

Hillary Clinton has a 65% chance of winning the election; she receives 334 electoral college votes according to our model. Trump still requires an exogenous shock to win. Meanwhile, the USD is poised to rally - and leftward-moving…

Our Fourth Quarter Strategy Outlook presents the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of the year and beyond.

Special Report

This week, we are reviewing all of our active trades discussed in the last twelve months, which are intended to be an overlay to our recommended fixed income portfolio.

Special Report

In a February Special Report titled "Assessing Fair Value In FX Markets" we introduced a set of long-term valuation models based on various fundamentals. We have updated the results and added KRW, INR, PHP, HKD, CLP and COP to our…

In September, the model outperformed the S&P 500, while it underperformed global equities in both USD and local-currency terms. For October, the model trimmed its allocation to stocks and boosted its weightings in bonds and cash…

Special Report

Investors are overstating the legal and political constraints to "helicopter money"; The BoJ and BoE have few legal hurdles, whereas the ECB would have to get creative to stay within the existing law; Inflation-phobia in…

Special Report

We extracted the key factors driving currency returns; these variables approximate the dollar, EM spreads, and commodities. Any currency's sensitivity to these factors can be estimated, offering a great degree of flexibility for…

Special Report

It is becoming increasingly likely that the U.K. will, after all, exit the EU. Feature The initial post-Brexit economic data have surprised to the upside as a result of the Bank of England's quick reflexes, the fall of the pound, and…

The median voter moving to the left has spurred paradigm shifts. These new regimes are giving way to transformational leaders who seek change by breaking convention. As they test their constraints and pursue their preferences, a…