Highlights Global equity markets have managed to recoup some of last year’s plunge since we upgraded stocks to overweight in late December. The equity rally has been tentative, however, and so far feels more like a technical…
All the components of the U.K. CHM have contributed to this worsening trend. Even short-term liquidity, which had been in a powerful uptrend for almost a decade, has started to roll over. The cause for this deterioration can…
Highlights We recently upgraded our recommended investment stance on global corporate bonds to overweight on a tactical (3 to 6 months) basis.1 Feature That change was mostly based on our view that global financial conditions had…
Highlights After this week’s drama, the Brexit political process remains extremely complex, but the probability of a hard Brexit is still below 10%. No easy compromise will come through as Brexit suffers a fundamental…
Highlights After this week’s drama, the Brexit political process remains extremely complex, but the probability of a hard Brexit is still below 10%. No easy compromise will come through as Brexit suffers a fundamental…
Any relationship entailing continued access to EU institutions and markets will require two elements that reduce sovereignty: Paying an access fee and accepting the acquis communautaire of the EU without having a say in how it is…
The EU is on record stating that it would agree to extend the Article 50 deadline, currently set for March 29. The EU can do so with a unanimous vote of the EU Council. London can extend Article 50 with a simple legislative act,…
Highlights The U.S. economy is slowing in a completely predictable manner. With inflationary pressures largely dormant, the Fed can afford to stay on hold for the next few FOMC meetings. Growth in the U.S. and the rest of the world…
Highlights Buy the pound as soon as the U.K. parliament coalesces a majority around an action plan to counter a no-deal Brexit. For equity investors the best play is a FTSE Small Company Index ETF and/or U.K. REITS. Beaten-down banks…
Highlights Investors ran for cover in December as they succumbed to a litany of worries regarding the outlook. The key question is whether the pessimism is overdone or an extended equity bear market is underway. Our outlook for the U.…