Executive Summary Realized Real Interest Rates Must Rise Policymakers must continue engineering higher real interest rates, and tighter financial conditions, to help cool off growth and bring down overshooting inflation.…
The Bank of England hiked interest rates by 50bps on Thursday, lifting the bank rate to 1.75% with the majority (8-1) of the MPC voting in favor of the outsized increase. Revisions to the forecast indicate that the central bank…
UK headline CPI inflation reached a fresh four-decade high of 9.4% y/y in June, following 9.1% in May and slightly above the anticipated 9.3%. Gasoline and food continue to be the largest drivers of headline CPI. However, the…
Executive Summary China's Unemployment Over the past week we have been visiting clients along the US west coast. In this report we hit some of the highlights from the most important and frequently asked questions. Xi…
Executive Summary Our recommended model bond portfolio outperformed its custom benchmark index by +24bps in Q2/2022, improving the year-to-date outperformance to a solid +72bps. The Q2 outperformance came entirely from the credit side…
Executive Summary Buying a home is now more expensive than renting in many parts of the world. In the US and UK, disappearing homebuyers combined with a flood of home-sellers will weigh on home prices over the next 6-12 months.…
Executive Summary China: GeoRisk Indicator A new equilibrium between NATO, which now includes Sweden and Finland, and Russia needs to be reestablished before geopolitical risks in Europe subside. Russia aims to inflict a…
The “cost of living crisis” is weighing down on UK consumers. The volume of total retail sales fell by 0.5% m/m in May, and the measure that excludes auto fuel declined by a greater magnitude of 0.7% m/m. Consumer…
The UK economy unexpectedly contracted in April for the second consecutive month. GDP fell 0.3% m/m following a 1% m/m decline in March, disappointing expectations of a 0.1% m/m increase. Service sector activity was the…
Executive Summary Competing Forces On Global Bond Yields Bond yields in the developed world have ticked higher recently, due to a renewed increase in oil prices and the spillover effect from more hawkish policy expectations…