Highlights So What? Key geopolitical risks remain unresolved and most of the improvements are transitory. Maintain a cautious tactical stance toward risk assets. Why? U.S.-China relations remain the preeminent geopolitical risk to…
Highlights So What? Economic stimulus will encourage key nations to pursue their self-interest – keeping geopolitical risk high. Why? The U.S. is still experiencing extraordinary strategic tensions with China and Iran…
The recent plunge in the central bank’s net foreign exchange reserves excluding swaps (i.e. net international reserves) has put many pertinent metrics at record lows. In particular, net international reserves are at a…
The key imbalance remains the gap between foreign debt obligations (FDOs) and the availability of foreign currency to meet these debt obligations. Turkey’s FDOs in 2019 are equivalent to $180 billion. FDOs measure the sum…
Turkish financial assets, and the currency especially, will remain under selling pressure in the coming months. Additional adjustments in the exchange rate and interest rates - as well as in the real economy and current account balance -…
Highlights In Indonesia, investors are ignoring the weakness in global growth, which is an important driver of the country’s financial markets. The Indonesian currency, equities and local currency bonds all remain vulnerable. We…
Investor surveys show that the majority of investors’ top concerns are political or geopolitical in nature. Yet there is limited research devoted to quantifying these risks. The most prominent techniques involve tallying…
Highlights So what? Quantifying geopolitical risk just got easier. Why? In this report we introduce 10 proprietary, market-based indicators of country-level political and geopolitical risk. Featured countries include…
While losing the local elections will not upset the balance in parliament, it is a rebuke to Erdogan over his economic policy and a warning to the AKP for the future. Erdogan does not face general elections until 2023. But…
Highlights So what? EM elections bring opportunities as well as risks. Why? Emerging market equities will benefit as long as China’s stimulus does not fizzle. Modi is on track to win India’s election –…