Regular readers are familiar with our expectations for a global recession over the cyclical investment timeframe. A global downturn is overwhelmingly bearish for oil demand. The supply side, on the other hand, is…
The JPM Global manufacturing PMI declined at an accelerating pace in September (49.6 to 48.8). Moreover, international trade flows deteriorated notably with the new export orders component falling from 48.4 to 47.5. A sector…
Export dynamics from small open economies are a good bellwether for global growth conditions. Taiwan export orders accelerated from 4.8% y/y to a faster-than-anticipated 9.1% in August. The faster pace of growth was also broad…
Singapore is a small open economy sensitive to global trade dynamics. Its non-oil exports (NODX) are thus a good bellwether for global growth conditions. Overall exports, which are highly volatile on a month-on-month basis,…
Chinese export growth in USD terms accelerated from 7.0% y/y to a larger-than-expected 8.7% in August. China’s exports to its major trading partners (US, EU and ASEAN) were all growing in August on a year-on-year basis,…
According to BCA Research’s GeoMacro Strategy service, while the idea that Donald Trump would allow China to build factories in the US does not mesh with the contemporary media narrative, it would fit the historical track…
Indonesian stocks have sold off sharply and underperformed their EM and emerging Asian peers – both in local currency and in common currency terms – despite the nation’s 5.1% real GDP growth rate (the highest…
The unwind of yen carry trades caused violent tremors across the globe. Was this shock a one-off event or the prelude to more troubles?