Trade / BOP
Highlights President Biden has called for the US intelligence community to investigate the origins of COVID-19 and one of Biden’s top diplomats has stated the obvious: the era of “engagement” with China is over. This clinches our long-held view that any…
Highlights Global stocks are very vulnerable to a correction. But cyclically the Fed is committed to an inflation overshoot and the global economy is recovering. China’s fiscal-and-credit impulse fell sharply, which leaves global cyclical stocks and…
Highlights Over the 2021-22 period, renewable capacity will account for 90% of global electricity-generation additions, per the IEA's latest forecast. This will follow the 45% surge (y/y) in renewable generation capacity added last year, which occurred…
Highlights US natural gas prices will remain well supported over the April-October injection season, as the global economic expansion gains traction, particularly in Europe, which also is refilling depleted storage levels. China's natgas demand is…
Highlights The kiwi will continue to benefit from a pandemic-free recovery and normalization in monetary policy from the RBNZ. However, the kiwi is becoming expensive according to most of our models. This will begin to impact growth via the trade channel…
Highlights Biden’s first 100 days are characterized by a liberal spend-and-tax agenda unseen since the 1960s. It is not a “bait and switch,” however. Voters do not care about deficits and debt. At least not for now. The apparent outcome of the populist…
Highlights The Greens are likely to win control of Germany’s government in the September 26 federal elections. At least they will be very influential in the new coalition. Germany has achieved may of its long-term geopolitical goals within the EU. There…
Dear Client, Next week I will be hosting a series of Roundtable discussions with BCA’s clients in both Europe and Asia. Our next report published on April 28th will be a recap of my observations from these meetings. Best regards, Jing Sima China…
Highlights The Swiss economy will benefit from the pickup in global growth. The recent weakness in the franc has been a welcome development for the Swiss National Bank, but technicals suggest a coiled spring rally in CHF is likely. However, as a low-…
Highlights Global manufacturing activity will soon peak due to growing costs and China’s policy tightening. This process will allow the dollar’s rebound to continue. EUR/USD’s correction will run further. This pullback in the euro is creating an…