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October 2018
Highlights Macro outlook: Global growth will continue to decelerate into early next year on the back of brewing EM stresses and an underwhelming policy response from China. Equities: Stay neutral for now, while underweighting EM…
The Bank Credit Analyst by Peter Berezin
Deciphering Global Trade Linkages
Special Report Highlights We have deciphered global trade linkages to determine which countries are most at risk from a slowdown in EM/China imports. Our analysis takes into account not only the destinations of shipments but also the types of goods…
Emerging Markets Strategy
GICS Sector Changes: The Implications For China
Special Report Highlights The upcoming changes to the Global Industry Classification Standard will substantially alter the sector composition of the MSCI China Investable index, by hollowing out the information technology sector (to the benefit of…
China Investment Strategy by Qingyun Xu
Investing In The Middle Of A Trade War
Highlights The Trump administration's decision to effectively tariff the second round of imports at 25% materially raises the odds of another significant uptick in Chinese financial market volatility. Even if China ramps up its…
China Investment Strategy by Jonathan LaBerge
Peak Trade Tensions?
  Markets started the week with news that the Trump administration is likely to impose a 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese imports. A ten percent tariff is at the low-end of the range that was being considered by President…
Daily Insights
Moderate Releveraging And Currency Stability: An Impossible Dream?
Highlights The primary trend for both Chinese stock prices and CNY-USD remains captive to negative surprises related to the trade war between the U.S. and China. Considerable uncertainty remains on this front, but our outlook is that…
China Investment Strategy by Jonathan LaBerge
The Dollar: Will The U.S. Invoke A "Nuclear" Option?
Special Report Highlights Barring government interference in foreign exchange markets, the path of least resistance for the U.S. dollar is up. The U.S. Treasury has authority to intervene unilaterally in foreign exchange markets. However, conditions…
Emerging Markets Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
What If NAFTA Is Not A Done Deal? U.S. Equity Implications
Special Report This Special Report examines the impact of a NAFTA cancelation on 21 level-three GICs industries. While the latest news on the NAFTA renegotiation with Mexico is positive as we go to press, there is still a non-negligible risk that the…
The Bank Credit Analyst by Matt Gertken
Re Oil Demand: Fed Policy Trumps Tariffs
Special Report Highlights "When you come to a fork in the road, take it." - Yogi Berra The last time we invoked the great American philosopher Yogi Berra was in September 2015. Back then, the oil market was at a critical juncture, as the…
Commodity & Energy Strategy
China: How Stimulating Is The Stimulus?
Special Report Highlights Xi Jinping is trying to do two things at once: ease policy while cracking down on systemic financial risk; The trade war with the U.S. is a genuine crisis for China and is eliciting fiscal stimulus; Credit growth is far…
Foreign Exchange Strategy by Qingyun Xu, Matt Gertken

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