We published a Special Alert report titled Turkey: Book Profits On Shorts yesterday. The link is available on page 18. This report is Part 2 of an overview of the cyclical profiles of emerging market (EM) economies. This all-in-charts…

Highlights The 2016-2017 China/EM recovery was not the beginning of a new economic and financial cycle. We view it as a mid-cycle recovery, or hiatus, in an unfinished downtrend that began in 2011. Our basis: In EM at large and…

  Thai equities have been selling off in absolute terms and have lately begun to underperform the emerging markets (EM) equity benchmark (Chart II-1, top panel). Meanwhile, the currency has also been weakening (Chart II-1,…

Special Report

Highlights Malaysian elections are likely in April or May and we expect will return the ruling BN coalition to power; Malaysia's banking system is vulnerable and economy is highly exposed to a relapse in Chinese growth and/or…

Highlights Tensions are still high between the U.S. and China; China's neighbors are in the line of fire; Korea and Taiwan stand to suffer; We are bullish Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines; We are bearish Indonesia and…

Highlights EM tech stocks are overbought while banks are fundamentally vulnerable due to bad-loan overhang. EM stocks have never decoupled from the U.S. dollar and commodities prices. There has been no recovery in EM corporate…