Special Report

Executive Summary Chinese Infrastructure Investment Growth: A Slowdown Ahead  Despite the authorities’ push, China’s infrastructure1  investment nominal growth2 will likely slow from the current rate of 8% to…

Special Report

Executive Summary Indian Voter’s Economic Miseries Are Ascendant  India has a strong strategic geopolitical position but is likely to face turbulence in the short term. This is because India remains expensive, and investors…

Listen to a short summary of this report.         Executive Summary The US Inflation Surprise Index Has Rolled Over  Global equities are nearing a bottom and will rally over the coming months as…

Executive Summary Allies Still Have Faith In USD  The Biden administration’s use of sanctions has prompted market speculation about the longevity of the dollar. Yet the DXY has hit 100 and could break out, in the…

Special Report

Executive Summary The Declining Value Of An Old Friendship  India may buy cheap oil from Russia, but oil alone cannot expand this partnership. India needs to maintain a balance of power against China and Pakistan. With…

Special Report

Executive Summary Semi Shipments-To-Inventory Ratios Are Falling In Korea And Taiwan   Global semiconductor stock prices are vulnerable to the downside over the next three to six months. The global semiconductor industry…

Executive Summary The structural downtrend in Chinese bond yields has a lot further to go, because it is helping to let the air out gently of stratospheric valuations in the real estate sector, and thereby preventing a hard landing for…

Executive Summary To understand the economy and the market we must think of them as non-linear systems which experience sudden phase-shifts. The pandemic introduced phase-shifts in our lives, which led to phase-shifts in our goods…

Executive Summary Wars Don’t Usually Affect Markets For Long  We expect the war in Ukraine to stay within its borders, and therefore to have little impact on global growth. Markets will be volatile, but we recommend…

Executive Summary The Pandemic-Led Surge In E-Commerce Spending Is Reverting Back To Trend  Rising interest rates and a cooling in pandemic-related tech spending will cap the upside for technology shares over the remainder of…