After a resilient first quarter, the South African rand experienced a sharp late-April selloff that brought it back down near late-2021 lows. However, the currency has been appreciating over the past week, recouping some of the…
Executive Summary German GeoRisk Indicator Russia and Germany have begun cutting off each other’s energy in a major escalation of strategic tensions. The odds of Finland and Sweden joining NATO have shot up. A halt…
South African financial markets have shot up and have dramatically outperformed their EM peers. The rotation into commodities following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has greatly benefited commodity plays like South Africa…
The South African rand depreciated 15% versus the greenback between June and November 2021. However, this trend has reversed in recent weeks and it is now up 3% since then. The ZAR’s latest move coincides with measures to…
The central bank’s efforts to sterilize inflows of US dollars from the IMF have inadvertently led to considerably tighter monetary conditions. Not only has the currency appreciated a lot but also market interest rates have…
Highlights US labor-market disappointments notwithstanding, the global recovery being propelled by real GDP growth in the world's major economies is on track to be the strongest in 80 years. This growth will fuel commodity demand,…
Highlights Political and corporate climate activism will increase the cost of developing the resources required to produce and deliver energy going forward – e.g., oil and gas wells; pipelines; copper mines, and refineries. Over…
Highlights Higher copper prices will follow in the wake of China's surge in steel demand, which lifted Shanghai steel futures to an all-time high just under 5,200 RMB/MT earlier this month, as building and infrastructure projects…
After bottoming in April 2020, the South African rand surged versus the US dollar for the remainder of the year. However, since December, the USD/ZAR has been stuck between 14.5-15.5. The ZAR’s fluctuations coincided…