Social Unrest
Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out
Le Pen And Other Hurdles (GeoRisk Update…
Executive Summary The Good: There are compelling reasons to believe the Ukraine war will not break out into a broader NATO-Russia war, i.e. World War III. The Bad: The 1945 peace settlement is breaking down and the world is fundamentally less stable. Even if the Ukraine war is contained,…
Executive Summary Major EM’s Defense Spends Will Be Comparable To That Of Developed Countries
Beware EMs That Borrow Too Much Or Wage War…
Executive Summary Failure Of Iran Deal Tightens Oil Supply
Failure Of Iran Deal Tights Oil Supply…
Executive Summary Russia Not Prepared To Invade West Ukraine Yet
Imbalance Of Terror (GeoRisk Update…
Executive Summary From Nixon-Mao To Putin-Xi
From Nixon-Mao To Putin-Xi…
Executive Summary Russian Invasion Scenarios And Likely Equity Impact
Ukraine Crisis Decision Tree…
Executive Summary Brazil: Are Political & Macro Risks Priced-In?
Brazil: The Road To Elections Won't Be Paved With Good Intentions…
HighlightsUpgrade odds of Russia invading Ukraine from 50% to 75%. The US and allies are transferring arms to Ukraine while seeking alternate energy supply for Europe.Of the 75% war risk, we give 10% odds to Russia conquering all of Ukraine, as discussed in our “Five Black Swans For 2022.” Russia’s…
Highlights Our top five “black swan” risks for 2022: Social unrest in China; Russian invasion of all of Ukraine; unilateral Israeli strikes on Iran; a cyber attack that goes kinetic; and a failure of OPEC 2.0. Too early to buy the dip on Russian assets: President Biden says Putin will…